June 28, 2026, 6:02 pm
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While I wasn’t going to give an update on the 2026 campaign season in Ukraine so soon, it’s been an eventful one that demonstrates how the war has shifted (and how it hasn’t) since last year.
Ukraine’s long and mid-range drone strike efforts have ramped up significantly and Crimea has now declared an emergency as its logistics deteriorate. At the same time, Russia has fought it’s way into the first city of Ukraine’s fortress belt and seems determined to continue advancing in the Donbas.
And so, with the invasion now having lasted longer than WW1, let’s talk about the duelling Russian and Ukrainian campaigns of 2026 (so far)
Patreon:
https://www.patreon.com/PerunAU
Reading and Sourcing (partial):
Discussion between Rob Lee & Dmytro Putiata on topics including Russian and Ukrainian tactical adaptations (recommended)
Mentioned documentary on the last road from Druzhkivka to Kostyantynivka
Credit to @clement_molin for his work on strike mapping
https://x.com/clement_molin?lang=en
Low flying Flamingo
https://x.com/bayraktar_1love/status/2070854180848177162
Example of Ukrainian claims on Russian military-political discourse on Ukraine war
https://newsukraine.rbc.ua/news/russian-command-promises-putin-full-donbas-1778664715.html
Lostarmor
https://lostarmour.info
Example Russian strike on Ukrainian petrol stations
https://www.reuters.com/world/russia-hits-ukrainian-locomotives-fuel-stations-leaving-one-dead-2026-06-25/
Crimea declares emergency
https://www.theguardian.com/world/2026/jun/27/ukraine-war-briefing-russian-occupied-crimea-declares-emergency-as-zelenskyys-forces-step-up-attacks
Brave1 Claimed point awards
https://x.com/BRAVE1ua/status/2062959260158357923
Reporting on fight for Kostyantynivka
https://www.bbc.com/news/articles/c9w2g0ewk95o
https://kyivindependent.com/analysis-russia-breaks-into-kostiantynivka-opening-battle-for-donbas-fortress-belt/
https://understandingwar.org/research/russia-ukraine/russian-offensive-campaign-assessment-june-21-2026/
https://www.nytimes.com/2025/07/07/world/europe/ukraine-war-russia-donetsk.html
https://tass.com/defense/2149697
Reporting on long and mid-range strikes
https://lostarmour.info/armour
https://kyivindependent.com/ukraine-destroys-key-logistics-bridge-in-crimea-hits-over-60-russian-military-targets-overnight/
https://kyivindependent.com/how-ukraines-drone-blockade-of-crimea-is-pressuring-russias-hold-on-the-peninsula/
https://www.theguardian.com/world/2026/jun/22/ukraine-intensifies-attacks-on-crimea-to-raise-cost-of-russia-occupation
https://x.com/bayraktar_1love/status/2070810813502234980
Drones Strike Ferry Panagia in Kerch Strait Used to Transport Equipment to Crimea
https://ru.themoscowtimes.com/2026/06/24/ukraina-udarila-po-vtoromu-za-nedelyu-tsentru-kosmicheskoi-svyazi-rossii-a199064
Reporting on fuel shortages in Russia & Crimea
https://www.bbc.com/news/articles/cy06495y2lko
North Korea confirms troops were sent to Ukraine (April 2025)
https://www.npr.org/2025/04/28/nx-s1-5379436/north-korea-russia-ukraine-troops-putin-kim
Special image credits-
Kyiv Independent & https://www.instagram.com/p/DZU6feLCK_5/?img_index=7
Caveats & Comments:
Nothing in this episode should be taken to represent an opinion or advice on any legal matter, including with regards to the potential application of domestic or international law to any of the events described or alluded to.
All normal caveats and comments apply. In particular – I would like to note as always that this material has been created for entertainment purposes and is not intended to be a complete or comprehensive examination of the topic in question and should not be relied upon to inform financial or other similar decisions.
Any content relating to the conduct, views, activities or any aspect of any person or character in this video is included for entertainment purposes and does not represent an assertion of fact on those matters or any matters in relation to that person or character.
Care has been taken in compiling data, quotes, and other inputs from various sources but errors can occur. Quotes and included data should be considered illustrative, not definitive and their veracity should not be relied on.
Timestamps:
00:00:00 — Intro
00:01:19 — What Am I Talking About?
00:03:32 — Campaign Context
00:06:12 — Challenges to the Russian Model
00:23:34 — Kostyantynivka
00:29:42 — What to Watch From Russia?
00:34:02 — the Ukrainian Campaign
00:40:04 — Crimea
00:53:03 — 2026 Dynamics
00:57:36 — Channel Update
Content Creator – Perun
