April 26, 2026, 3:02 pm
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At this stage, any observations based on the war in the Middle East are going to be very preliminary and based on thoroughly incomplete information.
That said, with the ceasefire extended (albeit with blockades still in place) I thought now was the perfect time to capture some tentative early lessons because some things already show in the data.
For example, trade is frighteningly fragile, munitions evaporate at treasury melting rates in a high-intensity war, and there is a lot you can do with a combination of dirt and deception (concrete and rock certainly help as well).
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Reading and Sourcing (Partial):
Reporting on the Ceasefire
https://www.aljazeera.com/news/2026/4/21/us-and-iran-exchange-threats-as-fragile-ceasefire-set-to-expire
CRS: Emergency Access to Strategic and Critical Materials: The National Defense Stockpile
https://www.congress.gov/crs-product/R47833
Operation Epic Fury – U.S. Aircraft Losses Visualized (TWZ)
https://www.twz.com/air/operation-epic-fury-u-s-aircraft-losses-visualized
Reporting on Iranian strikes on U.S. targets in middle east
https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2026-03-06/iran-hits-key-us-radar-deepening-gulf-missile-defense-woes
https://edition.cnn.com/2026/03/05/middleeast/radar-bases-us-missile-defense-iran-war-intl-invs
Iran takes seized ships to port – Reuters
https://www.reuters.com/world/europe/iran-takes-seized-ships-port-countries-seek-info-seafarers-safety-2026-04-23/
Reporting on Iranian cluster munition usage
https://www.aljazeera.com/features/2026/3/24/what-are-irans-cluster-munitions-that-are-penetrating-israeli-defences
CENTCOM on U.S. Blockade
https://www.centcom.mil/MEDIA/PRESS-RELEASES/Press-Release-View/Article/4464037/us-forces-disable-vessel-attempting-to-enter-iranian-port-violate-blockade/
https://x.com/CENTCOM/status/2047030786973483370
Example CRAM engagements
C-RAM failed to intercept incoming drone, impact captured inside the U.S. Embassy compound in Baghdad.
byu/BotType729 inCombatFootage
The C-RAM system shoots down a drone that was heading to the American Embassy in Baghdad
byu/PhysicalPiccolo1800 inCombatFootage
https://www.instagram.com/reel/DWFbAyYiRf8/
US seeking additional bunkers
https://www.twz.com/news-features/bunkers-for-u-s-bases-in-middle-east-now-a-top-priority
https://www.stripes.com/theaters/us/2026-03-28/pentagon-exploratory-call-premade-bunkers-middle-east-21201414.html
Reporting on the U.S. Blockade
https://www.aljazeera.com/news/2026/4/24/how-long-can-iran-survive-the-uss-hormuz-blockade
https://www.cbsnews.com/news/hegseth-caine-news-conference-iran-war-ceasefire-lebanon-israel-hormuz-4-23/
Russia builds protective shelters after operation spider’s web
https://www.themoscowtimes.com/2025/07/14/russia-builds-protective-bunkers-at-airbases-after-ukraines-spiders-web-drone-strikes-a89800
US turns to Ukrainian counter drone tech after Iran attacks – Reuters
https://www.reuters.com/business/aerospace-defense/us-turns-ukrainian-counter-drone-tech-after-iran-attacks-sources-say-2026-04-22/
Report on potential intelligence sharing with Iran
https://www.abc.net.au/news/2026-04-06/us-intelligence-chinese-satellite-imagery-middle-east/106508322
Ukraine leveraging commercial satellite imagery providers
https://www.space.com/ukraine-radar-satellite-services-russian-invasion
https://kyivindependent.com/ukraines-crowdfunded-satellite-took-over-4-000-images-of-russian-facilities-military-intelligence-says/
Caveats & Comments:
All normal caveats and comments apply. In particular – I would like to note as always that this material has been created for entertainment purposes and is not intended to be a complete or comprehensive examination of the topic in question and should not be relied upon to inform financial or other similar decisions.
Any content relating to the conduct, views, activities or any aspect of any person or character in this video is included for entertainment purposes and does not represent an assertion of fact on those matters or any matters in relation to that person or character.
Care has been taken in compiling data, quotes, and other inputs from various sources but errors can occur. Quotes and included data should be considered illustrative, not definitive and their veracity should not be relied on.
Timestamps:
00:00:00 — Intro
00:00:58 — What Am I Talking About?
00:03:20 — War to "Ceasefire"
00:04:45 — Military Observations
00:05:41 — A2/AD and Global Trade
00:10:18 — the US Blockade
00:20:25 — Supply Lines
00:27:21 — Space Based Assets
00:35:04 — Missile & OWA Threat
00:43:34 — Munition Consumption
00:51:10 — Passive Defence is Not Optional
00:54:40 — Other Observations
00:56:39 — Channel Update
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