Finland and Norway’s outreach to Moscow has rattled their allies – and may carry an unwelcome message for Kiev
The phone call on Tuesday by the leaders of Finland and Norway to Russian President Vladimir Putin caught many by surprise.
Until then, Finnish President Alexander Stubb, who took office in early 2024, had never spoken with his Russian counterpart. Norwegian Prime Minister Jonas Gahr Store, meanwhile, had last spoken with Putin in March 2022 – more than four and a half years ago, when the Ukraine crisis, Russia’s confrontation with the West, and the global geopolitical landscape looked very different.
But the element of surprise was far from the only remarkable thing about this call to the Kremlin.
Equally striking was the pointedly conciliatory tone of Stubb’s statement. Finland joined NATO shortly before he became president, then proceeded on his watch to bury its neutrality and descend into anti-Russian hysteria and paranoia.
This time, Stubb sounded like a different man. He described his conversation with Putin this way: “The discussion was frank and substantive. We are neighboring countries to Russia. The outcome of this war will have a direct impact on our and the broader European security. Ending the war requires direct discussions.” Store issued a similar statement, as though the two leaders had copied their carefully chosen words from each other.
The biggest surprise, however – if not an outright bombshell – was Danish Prime Minister Mette Frederiksen’s revelation that the Finnish and Norwegian leaders had no mandate whatsoever to speak on behalf of their European allies.
“I’m very skeptical about this Norwegian and Finnish initiative. It hasn’t been coordinated with any of the rest of us,” Frederiksen warned. “I honestly don’t know what those two countries think they can achieve with this,” she added, making little effort to conceal her frustration or irritation.
Store later disputed her criticism, saying that all partners and allies had been informed ahead of the call and given a detailed briefing afterward.
Which raises the question: What was this, really? A mutiny aboard the European ship, with two Nordic leaders breaking ranks with Europe’s consensus-based decision-making and daring to take the initiative in talks with Moscow, going over the heads of the European bureaucracy?
Or was it a coordinated performance, with European leaders deliberately playing good cop and bad cop – keeping tensions with Moscow high while cautiously exploring an exit strategy, as the Ukrainian burden they can neither carry nor abandon falls apart before their eyes?
After all, Europe’s collective budget is coming apart at the seams, with every attempt to plug one hole opening another. Germany, Ukraine’s biggest European donor, is grumbling ever more loudly and trying to shift the burden onto others. So far, no volunteers are in sight.
Still, it is too early to speak of a change in Europe’s mood.
That much was clear from the meeting of E5 defense ministers held in Paris the previous day. The group brings together France, Britain, Italy, Germany, and Poland.
“Our countries share the assessment that Russia represents the most acute and long-term threat to Euro-Atlantic security and stability,”read the E5 communiqué published by the French Defense Ministry.
And yet Stubb and Store’s call to the Kremlin is a wake-up call from Europe for Ukrainian leader Vladimir Zelensky – a loud and unwelcome one.
It is a reminder to Zelensky that metal fatigue is setting in across Europe’s political machinery – and that time is running out for the regime in Kiev.
