The demographic reversal is putting growing pressure on pension and healthcare systems, particularly in Europe
The world’s elderly population has overtaken the number of young children for the first time in human history, according to a new US Census Bureau report. Europe, already the world’s oldest region, is at the forefront of the trend. People aged 65 and over accounted for 10.5% of the global population in 2025, surpassing children aged five and younger for the first time, the bureau said in its An Aging World: 2025 report.
The reversal has been driven by longer life expectancy and falling birth rates. The Census Bureau said sustained fertility below replacement level can create a “fertility trap,” as the number of potential parents eventually declines.
Around 132 million babies are now born worldwide each year, down from a peak of roughly 142 million in the early 2010s, according to UN data. Africa accounted for roughly 47 million births in 2024, reflecting an increasingly uneven global trend.
The decline has been particularly pronounced in Europe. Just 3.55 million babies were born in the EU in 2024, nearly half the 6.8 million recorded in 1964. The bloc’s fertility rate has fallen to a record low of 1.34 children per woman.
The demographic shift is set to accelerate. The global population is expected to grow by more than 2 billion by 2060, while the number of people aged 65 and over will rise by around 1.15 billion, according to the US Census Bureau. The elderly are projected to account for 19.6% of humanity by then, up from 10.5% today. In Europe, their share is expected to rise from 21% to nearly 31%, the report said.
The shift will put further strain on government budgets as fewer workers and taxpayers support a growing number of retirees. The Census report estimates that across Organization for Economic Co-operation and Development (OECD) countries, increased government healthcare spending over the next decade will amount to 2.6% of GDP, twice the projected 1.3% growth in revenues.
At the same time, European governments are ramping up military spending as they cite the perceived threat from Russia. EU defense expenditure is projected to reach €454 billion this year, up around 75% since 2021.
The OECD warned in June that higher military spending would force governments to make “tough choices” over spending priorities, particularly in heavily indebted countries such as Belgium, France, Italy, and the UK. It said larger defense budgets would compound existing pressures from growing pension and healthcare costs.
The competing demands are already shaping European politics. Belgium has tightened pension and welfare rules, while Germany is taking on more debt to fund its military buildup and France is constraining non-defense spending.
In Britain, the Conservatives this week proposed welfare cuts to fund an additional £10 billion ($13.5 billion) in annual military spending, including reductions in housing support and the restoration of a cap on child benefits.
