Sasol has cited improved production and stronger demand as key drivers of its positive outlook
South African energy and chemicals giant Sasol expects annual earnings per share to rise by as much as 84%, following a surge in oil and fuel prices driven by the US-Iran war and a disruption to supplies through the Strait of Hormuz.
The Johannesburg-registered company joins multiple Western energy firms which have been thriving on high prices since the US and Israel launched a war on Iran in February.
In a trading statement released on Wednesday, Sasol projected earnings per share of between 17.50 rand and 19.50 rand ($1.04-$1.16) for the financial year that ended on June 30. The figure would represent an increase of between 65% and 84% from the 10.60 rand reported a year earlier.
Sasol said its adjusted earnings before interest, taxes, depreciation and amortization (EBITDA) are expected to rise by between 12% and 20%, from 51.8 billion rand to between 58 billion and 62 billion rand.
Global oil prices surged after the US and Israel launched strikes against Iran in late February and Tehran restricted shipping through the Strait of Hormuz, a key route for more than a fifth of global oil trade.
US oil giant Chevron reported record second-quarter earnings of $12.1 billion, nearly five times the amount recorded a year earlier. US President Donald Trump, however, criticized the windfall on Monday, telling reporters: “Chevron: too much money. ExxonMobil: too much money.”
While the company cited a supportive “macroeconomic environment during the last quarter of the financial year,” JustOneLap founder Simon Brown linked the company’s outlook directly to the Middle East conflict, warning that its shares could fall alongside oil prices if tensions ease.
“At some point, Trump has to find a way to find some peace with the Middle East. Then oil will head down and take the Sasol share price with it,” he told BusinessDayTV.
Sasol is South Africa’s only inland fuel producer and operates the world’s only commercial coal-to-liquids plant at Secunda. The company has operated in Africa’s most industrialized nation for more than seven decades and supplies around 30% of the country’s fuel needs.
In a July performance update, Sasol said the Middle East conflict had disrupted supplies and contributed to higher prices, while its chemicals businesses in Africa, the US and Eurasia benefited from “favorable market conditions.”
However, the disruption also forced a shutdown at its gas-to-liquids plant in Qatar and constrained feedstock supply in Europe. The company warned that conditions remain volatile due to ongoing geopolitical uncertainty.
According to South African financial publication Daily Investor, Sasol’s stock gained more than 55% in the first month of the war and peaked at 238.94 rand in May before retreating on ceasefire hopes.
