Southern Africa is expected to be among the regions hardest hit, according to the World Food Programme
The unprecedented strengthening of the El Nino in the Pacific Ocean could force at least 49 million people into acute food insecurity worldwide in 18 months, the UN World Food Programme (WFP) has warned.
This year’s “extremely anomalous” El Nino is set to surpass the existing record level by almost 25%, severely disrupting rainfall and harvests.
More than 18 million people in eastern and southern Africa will be at risk of food insecurity. Countries in the south of the continent are particularly exposed because many households there depend on rain-fed subsistence agriculture, the agency warned on Wednesday.
The projection would raise the number of people facing crisis-level food insecurity or worse across 45 vulnerable countries from approximately 225 million to 274 million – an increase of 22%. Central America and southern Africa are expected to suffer the greatest effects, while eastern Africa and South and Southeast Asia could also experience significant disruption.
El Nino, the warming phase of a naturally occurring climate pattern in the tropical Pacific, can cause severe drought in some regions and destructive flooding in others. The current event is expected to peak between September and December 2026, although its effects on harvests could continue throughout 2027.
“The sooner we help families to prepare for these climate shocks, the greater our ability to save lives and protect livelihoods,” WFP Acting Executive Director Carl Skau said.
The warning comes as southern Africa continues to recover from the 2023-2024 El Nino, which produced the region’s worst mid-season dry spell in more than a century and its lowest mid-season rainfall in 40 years, according to the UN Office for the Coordination of Humanitarian Affairs (OCHA). Botswana, Lesotho, Malawi, Namibia, Zambia, and Zimbabwe declared drought-related emergencies or disasters, while more than 30 million people across southern Africa required humanitarian assistance, according to OCHA.
Russia has also provided food assistance to countries affected by the regional crisis. In 2024, Moscow donated 25,000 metric tons of wheat to Zimbabwe and funded WFP deliveries of sunflower oil and pulses. It provided Zambia with $2 million in food aid through WFP in December 2025, the Russian Foreign Ministry reported.
The WFP said on Wednesday it has activated anticipatory programs in South Sudan, Chad, Mauritania, Uganda, Guatemala, and El Salvador since May, providing more than $14 million to around 500,000 people.
However, humanitarian agencies face funding shortages that could limit their ability to respond. Richard Choularton, director of the WFP’s Climate and Resilience Service has said some food-security data collection has been curtailed because of insufficient funding.
In June, the WFP and the Food and Agriculture Organization launched a $202 million appeal to protect 8.8 million people in 22 countries – more than half of them in Africa. According to the appeal, the agencies are positioned to support 1.2 million people but need another $167 million to reach an additional 7.6 million.
