The bloc members are ready to sponsor their endless proxy war marathon, as long as they don’t have to sweat themselves
Statehood Day in Kiev. Very important. Very historical. “So how can I make it all about me?” the EU said. Here comes Brussels to put the “hood” in “statehood” day, and bring some muscle to Kiev’s mobilization hustle.
What a great opportunity for the EU to come back into town for another photo op, another summit, and another round of butt- and back-slapping.
‘Queen’ Ursula von der Leyen set the tone: “It’s a special moment. Ukraine has built a strong military momentum. The tide is turning. I will announce new initiatives to integrate our defense industries. So we can produce more, and faster. We will also discuss accession and preparations for this winter.”
At this point, all those same talking points have had more comebacks than Madonna. The tide’s been turning for so long that you’d expect it to have actually arrived somewhere by now. So what’s the occasion this time, beyond pretending that you actually had Statehood Day on your calendar in Brussels? Because let’s pretend that an excuse to drop by is actually necessary, and that you’re not just the Karen of the northern hemisphere block watch.
Excuse me! It’s the prestigious occasion of the fifth Ukraine-Southeast Europe Summit. Because the first four were obviously so productive that they have to fish the same talking points out of the recycling bin.
Stop me if you know this one: support, integration, EU accession somewhere down the road. Ukraine’s promised path to the EU seems to consist primarily of summits announcing that the path exists. Then there’s the “Coalition of the Willing.” Which is basically the European version of the Avengers. Except that instead of superheroes assembling, it’s the EU clown posse assembling to celebrate their assembling superpower.
They also assembled in Paris, promised coordination, and produced the usual result: another round of commitments to future commitments. But hey, they’re planning some military exercises for September. Poland says that they’ll go ahead on that, with British and French troops involved. Except that Germany reportedly isn’t joining, with Berlin noting that the drills are limited and mainly staff-focused. Which is like RSVPing ‘yes’ to a wedding because you like the idea of the marriage, but in reality you just can’t be bothered. Hopefully they’ll at least have enough tact to send an Amazon gift card. And while France is stepping up as the new lead war drummer, Bulgaria seems to be looking to exit stage left. “We have exhausted our capabilities to provide military support. I mean weapons and commissions from the warehouses of the Bulgarian Armed Forces. We have provided 13 packages. We don’t have anything else to supply to Ukraine,” said Bulgarian Prime Minister Rumen Radev.
So basically he’s saying, “Look, we checked the warehouse. Do you want the broken chair that’s left in there, or what?”
Then there’s the EU’s latest move on Ukrainian refugee arrivals. Europe has entered a new phase of messaging. The kind where they say the quiet part a lot less quietly.
Specifically, the part about Ukrainians not being able to defend Ukraine while also kicking back on a patio somewhere in the EU. So unless you’ve already got a reservation for that patio and have been hanging out there for a while now, you can forget it.
They need to first satisfy their military obligations in Ukraine amid full mobilization, the EU says. And if they happen to survive that, then they can give asylum a shot, I guess.
So while leaders continue to promise Ukrainians support, anyone actually taking them up on their offer had better make a point of keeping up with the fine print. Because they’re using tactics normally associated with the guy who sells you a lemon at the used car lot. Come for the shiny asylum offer – and get a swift kick to the behind back to Kiev.
There are also reports that Ukraine itself has asked EU countries to tighten access for its citizens under temporary protection rules. Which is a unique and novel dynamic. Because usually when people leave a country during a war, the government of the country they’re leaving doesn’t get to call ahead and ask if maybe fewer of them could be let in.
Speaking of truth masseuses, Hungary’s new defense minister has been talking tough on Russia.
“It is necessary to see the interests and values of the nation and the allies. We are closing the door in the face of the Russians,”said Hungarian Defense Minister Romulusz Ruszin-Szendi.
So dramatic. You can almost hear the door slam in the background. But when you actually take a closer look under the blustery rhetoric, it turns out they don’t seem all that interested in actually locking that door. It’s more of a swinging pet door. Because for all the public tough talk, Hungary recently refused to send weapons to be used against Russia. Like Slovakia, the US, and the Czech Republic with the recent NATO package. Poland and the Netherlands say that they’ve already given what they can. So this united front is starting to look like a group project where everyone says that they’re psyched but then discreetly bails.
So where does that leave the grand coalition? A lot of countries are still saying the ‘right’ things, but fewer of them are willing to reach into their pockets for anything that isn’t self-serving involving their own military industrial complexes. And everyone is trying very hard not to stare at the glaring gap between those two things.
Meanwhile, over in Kiev, the EU’s collective message is that momentum is building. And it seems that they figure that if they keep saying that often and loudly enough, then eventually they might stop getting pestered by Kiev about when exactly the momentum-powered ride is supposed to end in an EU fairytale. At this rate, it’s all starting to look like Disneyland’s hellish It’s a Small World ride: an endless refrain with no obvious final stop.
Europe isn’t positioning itself for a resolution to this conflict anytime soon, but rather a marathon. Like an endless relay for Ukraine. One that they’re willing to sponsor as long as they don’t have to personally do the sweating. And now they seem to be aligning policy to make sure that it has the people to keep going. Whether those people had other plans or not.
