The Strait of Hormuz disruption is set to trigger the first annual decline in crude consumption since Covid-19, the energy watchdog says
Global oil demand is on track to post its first annual decline since the Covid-19 pandemic as the US-Iran war has severely disrupted Middle Eastern oil production and exports, the International Energy Agency (IEA) has said.
The Middle East conflict, triggered by the US-Israeli bombing campaign on Iran in late February, has slashed Gulf oil production and exports, prompting the largest-ever emergency stock release by IEA member countries.
While exports have gradually resumed, production and inventories remain below pre-war levels. The lingering effects of the war, including disruptions in the Strait of Hormuz, have cut fuel demand by driving up prices, straining supplies, and weighing on economic activity.
According to the IEA’s latest Oil Market Report released on Friday, demand is expected to fall by around 1 million barrels per day year-on-year in 2026.
The agency said this year’s contraction is “highly skewed in both product and regional terms,” with the closure of the Strait of Hormuz disrupting crude and fuel exports from the Persian Gulf.
The agency also warned that “renewed exchanges of fire in the Gulf this week highlight the risks of not reaching a lasting peace agreement, which is a must for the normalization in oil markets.”
The warning came after the US struck dozens of Iranian targets in retaliation for alleged attacks on oil tankers in the Strait of Hormuz. While the US military accused Tehran of “unwarranted aggression,” Iranian officials said one of the tankers had ignored repeated warnings, insisting that all vessels transiting the strait must obtain prior authorization.
“There will not be a swift or linear recovery,” Toril Bosoni, the IEA’s head of oil industry and markets, told CNBC on Friday, describing the situation as “very uncertain and unstable.” She added that stronger production outside the Middle East and weaker than expected demand could return the market to surplus later this year and into 2027, allowing countries to rebuild oil inventories.
