As the AfD heads to its party congress in Erfurt, Germany’s collapsing mainstream braces for protests, panic, and a deeper political rupture
In the summer of 2026, Germany is a punch-drunk country reeling from harsh knocks, many of which are self-inflicted.
In the short term, it has just suffered a humiliating defeat at the UN General Assembly, where it was punished for Berlin’s brazen arrogance, political provincialism, and last but not least, steadfast support for Israel and its crimes, including genocide. At the World Cup, the German team was booted out of the tournament early and crushingly.
To make things worse, German Chancellor Friedrich Merz felt this was just the right moment to release some X posts apparently meant to be reassuring but stunning the nation by their cack-handed ineptitude and sheer disconnect with reality. Why settle for a mere national depression if you can trigger a raging s**t-storm in addition?
Germany’s fundamentals are also thoroughly catastrophic. According to Handelsblatt, Volkswagen, a traditional flagship of the German car industry at the core of the national economy and national pride, is stuck “in the greatest cost and structural crisis in decades.” Around 100,000 jobs are on the chopping block. And yes, that is representative of the economy as a whole. The country’s birth rate – at 1.35 children per woman – is the lowest since the mid-1990s, which reflects the mood of anxiety and pessimism across the country.
Even Germany’s public (de facto state) broadcasters, not known for unbiased reporting or serious criticism of the powers that be, are admitting that poverty is becoming entrenched. In what was once a country of economic success and optimism, according to official statistics, every sixth German is at risk of poverty.
And all of the above is happening under a succession of textbook-centrist governments, based on coalitions of parties and politicians that share a fundamental lack of convictions (apart from the blind urge to fight Russia again), egotism, careerism, and a coldhearted indifference, if not disdain, for the worsening problems and hardships that shape the lives of ordinary Germans.
At this point, the latest iteration of centrist uselessness warming seats in Berlin unites deeply unpopular Social-Democrats (SPD) – 12% in the polls – and widely scorned mainstream conservatives (CDU/CSU) – 22% and falling. No wonder that a whopping 53% do not trust any political party, while an abysmal 77% are dissatisfied with Merz.
It is this catastrophic decline, ruling fecklessness, and national frustration that will really be at stake in what is soon going to happen in the eastern German city of Erfurt, where the AfD (Alternative for Germany) will hold its party congress July 4-5.
Ahead of the meeting, Germany has the jitters. While the AfD is expecting hundreds of party delegates as well as guests, the authorities are predicting that 35,000 to 70,000 protesters will gather as well. That is a significant number by any measure. But it is even more impressive – or concerning – if you consider that Erfurt is historic (with one of Germany’s oldest universities) but not big, with a population of not quite 220,000.
It is extremely unlikely that all the anti-AfD protests about to converge on Erfurt will remain peaceful. While calling for calm, the local authorities and police are clearly trying to prepare for disturbances and violence, including blockades and worse.
Bjoern Hoecke, the key representative of the AfD Right and the powerful leader of the party in Thuringia, where Erfurt is located, may have been a touch hyperbolic when speaking of “civil war-like conditions.” Yet leaked documents show that Thuringia’s police are warning of thousands of violent activists who they believe will stage firebomb attacks from roofs, accept severe injury and death among their targets, and even execute an “endgame scenario” of storming the AfD congress. The police union is concerned about not having enough officers on the ground.
Whatever happens in Erfurt, it is already clear that the scene has been set for some big symbolic showdown theater. According to centrist and mainstream narratives, the battle lines are as Manichean as the best of Tolkien: Here, the forces of Mordor of the AfD, widely labeled as hostile to democracy and the constitution if not outright fascist; and there, the Hobbit forces of light of conformist protest, civil society, and a wholesome resistance that knows its place. If the latter features serious violence as well, then that will be written off as the exception, and ultimately the fault of the AfD.
So much for the childish story you will hear a lot about in the mainstream media.
And now let’s be serious: What makes this AfD congress such a hot issue is not AfD ideology, whatever you think about it, but AfD polls. The AfD is too successful at challenging the established parties on their own turf. In Germany as whole it is maintaining a clear lead over all other parties, currently with 26%. In the federal state of Saxony-Anhalt, the question is no longer if the AfD will win the elections in two months, which is virtually certain, but whether it will obtain an absolute majority that allows it to rule without coalition partners.
Such an unprecedented breakthrough in one federal state would not be a local affair. It is certain to have massive national effects. The undemocratic and unfair policy of the firewall by which the establishment parties have sought to lock the AfD – and its voters – out of politics would become practically unsustainable. One of its main representatives, Merz, would most likely fall, or to be precise, stabbed in the back by competitors within his own CDU open to working with the AfD.
No wonder we have also just seen another transparent attempt to initiate a new lawfare blitz on the AfD. Under the cover of a new study claiming scientific credentials, a clearly pre-arranged chorus of voices is demanding the party be prohibited. Never mind that the case for this is weak and the legal hurdles that it would have to overcome high, fortunately. The study itself appears dubious. Its methodology seems weak and based on the use of AI. In what appears as a peculiar boomerang effect, the foundation that produced it belongs to the same astroturfed civil society/NGO sphere that the West has often used to launch regime-change color revolutions abroad.
Erfurt, in other words, will be the backdrop for dramatizing – burning tires and rubbish containers included – an establishment-driven tale of ‘resistance’, part of the same scenario that features a ‘scientific’ study as ammunition for a prohibition solution. None of this will have anything to do with actually defending democracy. On the contrary, the only thing defended will be the radical centrism that is incompetent, intolerant, and increasingly desperate to cling to power.
