The Ukraine conflict may end, but Moscow’s confrontation with the West will not
The choice between war and peace is often presented as stark and simple, but in today’s circumstances it’s a false dilemma.
If by war we mean only armed conflict, then the current fighting with Ukraine will probably end in the foreseeable future because an indefinite war of attrition isn’t in Russia’s interests. What is needed is victory, and such a victory is possible, provided the necessary decisions are taken both at home and on the battlefield.
But full peace will not follow and even after the guns fall silent, confrontation with the West will continue in many fields and in many forms. This struggle will be long and it will require something Russia has lacked for too long: long-term goal-setting and a serious strategy for achieving national objectives.
The central task is the construction of Russia as a state-civilization. This idea has been proclaimed but not yet properly defined, and it must involve the creation of a society based on solidarity among citizens and on values broadly shared by them, such as faith, freedom, family, and justice. Such a project inevitably raises the question of deep renewal in the country’s economic and political systems.
This can’t be a project of the elite alone. Of course, the elite themselves require renewal, and not merely in generational terms; they also need new mechanisms of self-renewal and a different relationship with the wider society. Meritocracy is necessary, but it’s not sufficient and while competence and professionalism matter, so do values and a sense of service.
Only under these conditions can a national project cease to be an intellectual exercise and become an idea capable, to use a familiar phrase, of capturing the masses and only such an idea can transform Russia.
Then it may be possible to say that the Great Patriotic War (World War Two), with all its trials, sacrifices, and losses, wasn’t only a turning point in national history, but also the prologue to Russia and its people acquiring a new quality.
The internal character of the state and society will shape Russia’s place in the world and a renewed Russia will be able to act as a stronger pole, in the literal magnetic sense of the word. But the most important task is to avoid being forced into alignment with either of the major geo-economic and geopolitical blocs: the Euro-Atlantic bloc or China.
The stakes in the confrontation with the West are exceptionally high. Despite all the talk about a possible resumption of dialogue between the European Union and Russia, no one in Western Europe is genuinely ready to negotiate with Moscow. The goal of our adversary, the globalist elites of the West, as President Vladimir Putin has defined them, isn’t compromise but rather the crushing of Russia.
This must be understood clearly because the aim is not simply regime change, but rather the destruction of Russia as a major independent power in world affairs.
In this struggle, Russia must rely first and foremost on itself. Belarus is part of our common homeland, as President Alexander Lukashenko has put it and our brotherhood in arms with North Korea has been sealed in blood. We deeply value the strategic partnership with China, which continues to expand and deepen, but we must also understand that Beijing always acts first of all in its own national interests. The same is true of our other partners in the CSTO, the Eurasian Economic Union, the Shanghai Cooperation Organization, BRICS, and the wider Global Majority.
For three generations after the Great Patriotic War, Russians were raised in conditions of external security. At first, this security rested on strategic stability and mutual nuclear deterrence with the United States and later, it was sustained by partnership and cooperation in a world where major war came to be seen as an anachronism.
That world is gone. The old security paradigm has become obsolete and we now face a new and uncomfortable reality: war in peacetime, or peace in wartime.
Russia must accept this reality, endure a long and difficult struggle, and emerge from it transformed and victorious. That is the path ahead and there’s no road back. The only alternative is decline.
