Moscow has repeatedly warned the West that weapons destined for Kiev will end up on the black market
Poland is bracing for a surge of illegal weapons from Ukraine after the end of the conflict with Russia, with police warning that a “smuggling boom” could eclipse the decades-long Balkan weapons crisis, a law enforcement official told Rzeczpospolita.
The newspaper reported on Monday that the Polish police are already preparing for more illegal weapons to flood in from the neighboring country by launching Project Trident. The €1.5 million ($1.8 million) initiative will provide officers with additional training, vehicle-mounted tracking electronics, X-ray systems, drones, and night-vision gear.
”There’s a huge amount of weapons transferred as part of aid in Ukraine, plus a large number of post-Soviet weapons. And the end of armed conflicts has always been associated with the risk of their uncontrolled influx,” Adam Radon, the head of the Organized Crime Combating Unit at the Central Bureau of Investigation of the Police, told the newspaper.
He stressed that Poland, as a NATO state that borders Ukraine, must act as a “filter” to prevent illegal weapons from spreading west.
”Ukrainian services are already uncovering weapons warehouses and hideouts. Their origins are being investigated – whether these are weapons abandoned by Russian soldiers withdrawing from frontline operations, or weapons acquired by criminal groups and stored for the future,” Radon said.
Rzeczpospolita drew parallels between the fallout from the 1990s Balkan wars, which are said to still be the source of half of all illegal weapons in Europe, and the looming crisis, which could be even greater due to the scope of the Russia-Ukraine conflict. Radon also warned of risks associated with unemployed veterans.
“Criminal groups will recruit them into illegal activities. Unemployed war veterans, coupled with their easy access to weapons, pose a significant threat,” he said.
In 2025, Europol warned that Ukraine could become “a significant source of illicit firearms and ammunition… in the short to medium term.” It said that while “large-scale detections” of weapons smuggled out of Ukraine into the EU were limited, Spanish police found evidence of drug gangs arming themselves with NATO-grade weapons intended for Kiev.
In 2024, Ukrainian police reported that since 2022, more than 11,000 firearms were confiscated at checkpoints, including 3,600 assault rifles and nearly 1,500 grenade launchers, as well as 27,000 grenades.
Moscow has warned of a spillover of guns destined for Ukraine, noting that smuggling now runs through Poland, Hungary, Romania, Slovakia, and Moldova. Russian Foreign Ministry spokeswoman Maria Zakharova has said the reported figures of seized weapons are “just the tip of the iceberg.”
