July 5, 2026, 6:02 pm
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While headlines swing on battles or drone strikes, the math of attrition and resupply grinds on in the background. So today, I look at some of the areas where Ukrainian capabilities may be growing in 2026, and at least one where shortages are acute and ongoing.
Patreon:
https://www.patreon.com/PerunAU
Reading and Sourcing (partial):
IISS
Military Balance 2021 and 2026
Visually confirmed losses and pledged resupply per Oryx
Featured Estonian Foreign Intelligence Service Report
https://valisluureamet.ee/doc/raport/2026-en.pdf
GICHD – Explosive Weapons Effects
https://www.gichd.org/fileadmin/uploads/gichd/Publications/Explosive_weapon_effects_web.pdf
CAT-UXO – OF25 Projectile
https://cat-uxo.com/explosive-hazards/projectiles/152mm-of25-projectile
SAAB signs Gripen fighter deal with Ukraine
https://www.reuters.com/business/aerospace-defense/saab-signs-254-billion-gripen-fighter-jet-deal-with-ukraine-2026-06-30/
https://www.twz.com/air/ukrainian-gripen-fighters-to-arrive-in-2027-long-range-meteor-missiles-claimed-to-be-included
Reporting on Russian claimed shoot down rates for fixed wing drones
Russia claims it shot down 64,000 Ukrainian drones in six months
BBC Urdu on claimed Pakistan munitions exports relevant to Ukraine
https://www.bbc.com/urdu/articles/cyd2em264ypo
Example Reporting on DPRK arms shipments to Russia
https://kyivindependent.com/north-korea-halves-arms-shipments-to-russia-as-its-own-stockpiles-run-low-ukraines-intelligence-says/
https://maritime-executive.com/article/north-korean-shipments-of-shells-to-russia-tail-off
Institute for Science and International Security – Monthly Analysis of Russian Shahed 136 deployment against Ukraine (June 22 2026)
https://isis-online.org/isis-reports/monthly-analysis-of-russian-shahed-136-deployment-against-ukraine
Reporting on Rheinmetall ammo production
https://ukdefencejournal.org.uk/germany-has-overtaken-us-in-ammunition-output/
https://www.rheinmetall.com/en/media/news-watch/news/2025/06/2025-06-03-rheinmetall-receives-major-international-orders-for-155mm-artillery-ammunition
https://thedefensepost.com/2026/03/12/germany-shell-casings-plant/
Ukraine 2.4 million rounds claim
https://www.pravda.com.ua/eng/news/2025/10/06/8001465/
https://www.pravda.com.ua/eng/news/2025/10/09/8001941/
Ukraine contracts Patriot interceptors
https://www.businessinsider.com/ukraine-buy-100-patriot-missiles-billion-eu-loan-russia-war-2026-7
report on dates of Russian missile and drone wreckage
Ukraine France Framework deal in 2025
https://www.bbc.com/news/articles/cwy170jkekdo
Skynex
Skynex Anti-Aircraft Systems Were Used to Shoot Down Shaheds
US 155mm ramp-up
https://breakingdefense.com/2026/02/army-official-not-happy-with-gds-handling-of-155mm-contract-as-production-lags/
Example TA-20 filled shells
https://x.com/Helvegen29/status/2064971736622211078
Poland MiG 29 deal
https://www.euronews.com/my-europe/2026/06/30/no-migs-for-ukraine-polish-defence-minister-claims-kyiv-backed-out-of-deal-with-warsaw
Ukraine minimum drone supply reform
Russian jet-powered OWA UAS
Ukraine seeks loan missile agreement
https://www.ukrinform.net/rubric-defense/4139530-ukraine-secures-contract-for-hundreds-of-antiballistic-missiles-moves-toward-domestic-production-dm-fedorov.html
Caveats & Comments:
All normal caveats and comments apply. In particular – I would like to note as always that this material has been created for entertainment purposes and is not intended to be a complete or comprehensive examination of the topic in question and should not be relied upon to inform financial or other similar decisions.
Any content relating to the conduct, views, activities or any aspect of any person or character in this video is included for entertainment purposes and does not represent an assertion of fact on those matters or any matters in relation to that person or character.
Care has been taken in compiling data, quotes, and other inputs from various sources but errors can occur. Quotes and included data should be considered illustrative, not definitive and their veracity should not be relied on.
Timestamps:
00:00:00 — Intro
00:00:25 — What Am I Talking About?
00:02:50 — the Overview
00:04:19 — UAS
00:15:26 — Air Power
00:31:29 — Artillery
00:43:51 — Air Defence
00:59:11 — the Overall Picture
01:01:23 — Channel Update
Content Creator – Perun
