July 2, 202312:02 pm
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The Wagner mutiny of late June is likely one of the more dramatic events of the Russo-Ukrainian war in 2023, and one that caught many observers and the international audience off guard.
Despite being closely watched by people around the world – much about the mutiny remains unknown – from its true purpose to the details of how and why it seemed to suddenly end.
In this episode I look at what we know so far, ask what prospects the attempt had for success, what observations we can tentatively make, and what the impacts going forward might be.
Patreon:
https://www.patreon.com/PerunAU
Caveats & Comments:
As noted in the video – I don’t know the details of what just happened (and likely neither do you) and so the analysis and timeline included here is necessarily based on the best information available to me at time of recording. Future revisions will likely be necessar
All other normal caveats (from information quality to ‘this is not financial advice’ to non-reliance apply as always
Relevant reading & sources:
Jonathan M Powell & Clayton L Thyne – Journal of Peace Research – Global instances of coups from 1950 to 2010: A new dataset
http://www.uky.edu/~clthyn2/powell-thyne-JPR-2011.pdf
Prigozhin charged with mutiny (TASS)
https://tass.com/russia/1637475
Peskov denying responsibility for Wagner in Africa
https://www.themoscowtimes.com/2023/06/28/kremlin-denies-state-role-in-wagners-africa-businesses-a81681
Putin backing MoD on Wagner contracts
https://www.reuters.com/world/europe/putin-backs-push-mercenary-groups-sign-contracts-despite-wagners-refusal-2023-06-13/
Reporting on Surovikin
https://www.aljazeera.com/news/2023/6/29/russia-holds-general-sergei-surovikin-over-wagner-mutiny-reports
Zolotov on Rosgvardia getting heavy
https://meduza.io/en/news/2023/06/27/russian-national-guard-head-says-his-forces-to-receive-heavy-weaponry-and-tanks-blames-wagner-rebellion-on-west
Reporting on Wagner vs the VKS
https://www.popularmechanics.com/military/aviation/a44348988/wagner-group-rebellion-impact-on-russia-air-force/
https://www.bbc.com/news/world-europe-66031403
On the response to Wagner troops
“He’s trying to justify it, says he was greeted with flowers. Yeah right! People harshly condemn it!”
~ Vladimir Solovyov
We’re just pretending like this video doesn’t exist then?
🇷🇺: Yes https://t.co/z8Xh9L2NFJ pic.twitter.com/AiHxMXYZXY
— Prune60 (@Prune602) June 28, 2023
Putin blasts Wagner as traitors
https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2023-06-26/putin-defense-chief-who-was-focus-of-wagner-mutiny-visits-troops
Bulletin of Atomic science on the Wagner nuclear risk
What would happen if a military group took over Russia’s nuclear arsenal?
Reporting on Prigozhin speaking
https://www.nbcnews.com/news/world/russia-defense-minister-shoigu-wagner-rebellion-putin-prigozhin-rcna91084v
Included tweet by Tatarigami (details cut off by cropping)
The most interesting part is that even the Z-crowd in pro-Putin's channels doesn't seem pleased with their fuhrer's speech pic.twitter.com/zQ3qQdLSaG
— Tatarigami_UA (@Tatarigami_UA) June 26, 2023
The many Coup accusations of Belarus
https://www.bbc.com/news/world-europe-53823954
https://www.dw.com/en/belarus-lukashenko-accuses-opposition-of-coup-plot/a-58804541
Footage of Wagner in Rostov-on-Don
🚨 Wagner PMC tanks have surrounded the Defence Ministry building in Rostov-on-Don pic.twitter.com/EgcFPbjDi5
— Igor Sushko (@igorsushko) June 24, 2023
Rumour of early warning of the plot
https://www.nytimes.com/2023/06/28/world/europe/prigozhin-wagner-revolt-russians.html
Rusian propagandist on flexible legal norms
https://twitter.com/wartranslated/status/1673113539509092356v
NATO statement on Belarus and Wagner
https://www.aljazeera.com/news/2023/6/28/nato-will-defend-members-from-threat-of-wagner-forces-in-belarus
Included Anatol Lieven article
https://www.theguardian.com/commentisfree/2023/jun/29/failed-wagner-coup-vladimir-putin-regime-strong-yevgeny-prighozin#comments
As normal – my policy is not to link directly to Telegram channels belonging to groups like Wagner or Russian military bloggers as these often contain extremist or prohibited content
Flight tracker of Putin’s jet
https://twitter.com/KobeissiLetter/status/1672585277196435456/photo/1
Prigozhin on defending Belgorod
https://www.euronews.com/2023/06/03/wagner-groups-prigozhin-says-his-forces-are-ready-to-defend-belgorod-from-mounting-attacks#:~:text=The%20head%20of%20the%20Russian,and%20attacks%20in%20recent%20days.
Reporting on the Wagner taking a senior officer captive
https://www.rferl.org/a/russia-ukraine-wagner-accused-abductions-vinivitin/32450565.html
I also extend my thanks to all those on twitter whose content is included here
A special thanks to Tex of BPL for his help hunting down some relevant data.
Timestamps:
00:00:00 — The Wagner Mutiny
00:01:56 — What Am I Talking About
00:04:16 — Rumours & Speculation
00:04:58 — Coups 101
00:10:39 — Rules For A Good One
00:17:11 — The Russian Attempt
00:31:02 — The Days After
00:33:03 — Could It Have Worked
00:36:38 — Conspiracy Theories
00:39:47 — Key Observations
00:47:20 — The Impact Going Forward?
01:04:57 — Conclusions
01:06:15 — Channel Update
Perun
