December 22, 2024, 3:02 pm
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Russia began its Feb 2022 invasion with a massive force advantage over Ukraine in the Black Sea – but over time we’ve seen the Russian fleet steadily pushed back by a Ukrainian strategy of sea denial driven by anti-ship missiles, reconnaissance drones and, critically, USVs (AKA naval drones)
Those drones have evolved rapidly, to the point where now we’ve seen them launching rockets or fighting back against helicopters.
So in this episode, I look at the Black Sea campaign since our 2023 update, and examine the evolution of Ukrainian USVs and the Russian response.
Patreon:
https://www.patreon.com/PerunAU
Reading and Sourcing:
CSIS on Russia’s strikes on Ukrainian Grain Infrastructure
https://www.csis.org/analysis/russias-renewed-attacks-ukraines-grain-infrastructure-why-now-what-next
Associated reporting
https://www.reuters.com/world/europe/russian-missile-hits-civilian-ship-with-ukrainian-grain-black-sea-zelenskiy-says-2024-09-12/
https://kyivindependent.com/romania-condemns-russian-strike-on-cargo-ship-with-ukrainian-grain-in-black-sea/
https://press.un.org/en/2024/sc15857.doc.htm
https://interfax.com.ua/news/economic/1022955.html
Anti-mine initiative
https://www.reuters.com/world/turkey-romania-bulgaria-ink-deal-clear-floating-black-sea-mines-2024-01-11/
FPV carrier
World First: Ukraine’s Newest Naval Drone In Unique Attack On Russian Positions
The Ukrainian Navy received naval drones equipped with strike FPV drones
Ukraine Arms Sea Baby Drones with Grad rockets
https://www.navalnews.com/naval-news/2024/01/ukraine-arms-sea-baby-usvs-with-rockets-or-missiles/
https://kyivindependent.com/the-sbu-has-a-new-weapon-grad-equipped-sea-baby-drones/
Ukrainian USVs get guns
https://www.forbes.com/sites/davidaxe/2024/12/09/ukraines-sea-baby-drone-boats-shoot-back-now/
https://www.ukrinform.net/rubric-ato/3935841-ukraines-sea-drones-engage-russian-helicopters-hit-barge-raw-footage.html
USVs vs countermeasures
https://www.businessinsider.com/russian-guns-on-warships-havent-stopped-ukraines-sea-drones-general-2024-3
The scope incident
https://www.npr.org/2024/09/04/nx-s1-5100305/navy-commander-photo-rifle-scope-mounted-backward
LRUSV + Hero Loitering Munition
https://www.navalnews.com/naval-news/2023/07/usmc-adds-loitering-munitions-to-its-lrusv-naval-drones/
385 Brigade
https://www.navalnews.com/naval-news/2023/08/worlds-first-specialized-explosive-naval-drone-unit-formed-in-ukraine/
Reporting on Vice Admiral Wikoff’s comments
https://www.voanews.com/a/houthis-undeterred-despite-us-action-to-protect-red-sea-shipping/7734735.html
Reporting on the collapse of the Grain Initiative
https://www.theguardian.com/world/2023/jul/20/what-was-the-black-sea-grain-deal-and-why-did-it-collapse
https://www.whitehouse.gov/briefing-room/press-briefings/2023/07/17/press-briefing-by-press-secretary-karine-jean-pierre-and-nsc-coordinator-for-strategic-communications-john-kirby-18/
Reporting on Ukraine’s Grain deliveries
https://www.voanews.com/a/tons-of-ukrainian-grain-arrives-in-drought-hit-malawi/7855276.html
https://www.consilium.europa.eu/en/infographics/ukrainian-grain-exports-explained/
https://www.cfr.org/article/how-ukraine-overcame-russias-grain-blockade
https://www.csis.org/analysis/setting-record-straight-ukraines-grain-exports
USMC tests HIMARS from the deck of the USS Anchorage
https://www.pacom.mil/Media/News/News-Article-View/Article/1351282/anchorage-conducts-high-mobility-artillery-rocket-system-shoot-during-db17
TASS (2021) on the Admiral Nakhimov
https://tass.com/defense/1281679
Neptune production
Magura & Sea Baby
https://newsukraine.rbc.ua/news/magura-v5-in-action-how-many-russian-ships-1709632507.html
https://www.twz.com/new-drone-boat-named-sea-baby-used-in-kerch-bridge-attack
Caveats & Comments:
See the pinned comment for corrections.
All normal caveats and comments apply. Including, as always that this material has been created for entertainment purposes and is not intended to be a complete or comprehensive examination of the topic in question and should not be relied upon.
Any content relating to the conduct and/or activities of any person or character in this video is included for entertainment purposes and does not represent an assertion of fact on those matters or in relation to that person or character.
Timestamps:
00:00:00 — Opening Words
00:01:15 — What Am I Talking About?
00:03:28 — Background
00:06:39 — Battle For The Black Sea
00:14:58 — Russia Changes Tactics
00:24:53 — Drone Evolution
00:35:22 — Counter-adaptation (drones with guns)
00:43:48 — Future Trends
00:50:50 — Wider Implications
01:01:46 — Channel Update
Content Creator – Perun
