December 8, 2024, 3:02 pm
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Since 2022, both Russia and Ukraine have lost enormous amounts of heavy equipment. Many militaries would have been burned out having suffered the kinds of losses Russia has, but with vast stocks of old Soviet armour and guns to reactivate and modernise, the Russian armed forces have consistently been able to regenerate and maintain offensive pressure on Ukraine.
But no stockpile is infinite, and after more than 1,000 days, the fields of armour and artillery are looking much emptier than when the invasion began.
This episode, we take a closer look at Russia’s storages, the trends behind their depletion, and try to estimate just how long Russia’s Soviet inheritance might last. The intention will then be to do an equivalent study on Ukraine in the future to enable a comparison of the two.
Many thanks to the likes of Covert Cabal, Jompy and Highmarsed for their work on monitoring Russian equipment storages which was a critical input to this analysis.
Patreon:
https://www.patreon.com/PerunAU
Reading and Sourcing (to be expanded 10/12/2024 once I’m at my research computer) :
Storage data relies on the work of the OSINT community monitoring and reporting on Russian storage sites, with primary credit to:
Covert Cabal (https://www.youtube.com/@CovertCabal)
Highmarsed (https://x.com/highmarsed)
Jompy (https://x.com/Jonpy99)
Dara Massicot Russian Military Reconstitution: 2030 Pathways and Prospects
https://carnegieendowment.org/research/2024/09/russian-military-reconstitution-2030-pathways-and-prospects?lang=en¢er=russia-eurasia
RUSI – Russian military objectives and capacity through 2024
https://www.rusi.org/explore-our-research/publications/commentary/russian-military-objectives-and-capacity-ukraine-through-2024
RUSI – A Methodology for Degrading the Arms of the Russian Federation
https://static.rusi.org/methodology-degrading-russian-arms-rusi-op-june-2024.pdf
Julian Cooper – Military Production in Russia Before and After the Start of the War With Ukraine
https://www.tandfonline.com/doi/full/10.1080/03071847.2024.2392990#d1e77
Reports on BMP-3 Production
https://jamestown.org/program/russias-kurganmashzavod-factory-data-shows-the-limits-of-bmp-3-production-rates/
https://en.defence-ua.com/industries/russia_trying_to_install_era_on_the_bmp_3_and_reports_about_the_production_rate-6621.html
Strange BTR-82a
Modified 1V18 'Klyon-1' artillery command and forward observer vehicle in operation by Russia's 237th Tank Regiment
byu/vitoskito inTankPorn
Reporting on Russian VBIED MT-LB
https://www.businessinsider.com/russian-troops-are-turning-tanks-into-car-bombs-against-ukraine-2023-6
The decoy "leopard"
https://x.com/TheDeadDistrict/status/1856766925386264907/photo/2
Reporting on Koalitsiya being sent to Ukraine
https://defence-blog.com/russia-deploys-its-new-152mm-self-propelled-gun-to-ukraine/
Reporting on D-1 being used as far back as 2022
https://mil.in.ua/en/news/russian-invaders-operating-in-the-luhansk-region-received-the-d-1-howitzers/
Reporting on DPRK shell quality
https://en.defence-ua.com/analysis/dissatisfied_with_quality_and_quantity_of_north_korean_artillery_shells_russians_complain-8818.html
Caveats & Comments:
All normal caveats and comments apply. In particular – I would like to note as always that this material has been created for entertainment purposes and is not intended to be a complete or comprehensive examination of the topic in question and should not be relied upon to inform financial or other similar decisions.
Any content relating to the conduct, views, activities or any aspect of any person or character in this video is included for entertainment purposes and does not represent an assertion of fact on those matters or any matters in relation to that person or character.
Timestamps:
00:00:00 — Opening Words
00:00:50 — What Am I Talking About?
00:03:14 — The Russian Equipment Model
00:05:46 — Assumptions And Adjustments
00:07:45 — IFVs
00:17:15 — MT-LB & BTR
00:28:16 — SPGs
00:37:30 — Towed Artillery
00:50:52 — Rocket Artillery
00:54:01 — Complicating Factors
00:55:31 — Trends And Implications
01:00:15 — Channel Update
Content Creator – Perun
