December 3, 2023, 3:05 pm
It’s increasingly understood that the war in Ukraine is likely to be a long and hard one – and in that kind of attrition based struggle, resources and political will can matter as much as battlefield victories or defeats.
Today I cover the topic of war exhaustion, asking not whether each side has the physical resources to continue, but instead what the data says about the willingness of voters and leaders in Ukraine, Russia, and Ukraine’s allies to stay the course and push on despite the costs of war – and what it may mean for the war in 2024.
Patreon:
https://www.patreon.com/PerunAU
Relevant Reading:
Ukraine population pyramid – World Population Review
https://worldpopulationreview.com/countries/ukraine-population
Putin saying Ukraine would last a week without support
https://www.aljazeera.com/news/2023/10/6/putin-says-ukraine-would-last-a-week-if-western-military-support-stops#:~:text=Russian%20President%20Vladimir%20Putin%20said,the%20United%20States%20dried%20up.
Russian polling on the war
https://carnegieendowment.org/2023/11/28/alternate-reality-how-russian-society-learned-to-stop-worrying-about-war-pub-91118
US opinion polling on Russia
https://news.gallup.com/poll/1642/russia.aspx
The Russia Today article on Zelensky’s popularity
https://www.rt.com/russia/585911-ukraine-zelensky-popularity-poll/
Ukrainian attitudes towards the war:
https://kyivindependent.com/survey-95-of-ukrainians-believe-in-kyivs-victory-against-russia/
Victory Despite the Cost: What Ukrainians Think about the War, Peace, and Russia
https://news.gallup.com/poll/512258/ukrainians-stand-behind-war-effort-despite-fatigue.aspx
Analysis and reporting on Russian 2024 Budget:
https://carnegieendowment.org/politika/90753
https://www.reuters.com/world/europe/everything-front-russia-allots-third-2024-spending-defence-2023-10-02/
Featured Daily Mail Article on UK support
https://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-12585131/Britons-UK-troops-Ukraine-russia-war.html
Reporting on Russian use of prisoners for military purposes:
https://www.aljazeera.com/news/2023/6/21/russia-moves-to-legalise-prisoners-fighting-in-ukraine-war
https://www.bbc.com/news/world-europe-67175566
https://www.washingtonpost.com/world/2023/10/26/russia-prison-population-convicts-war/
https://www.rferl.org/a/russia-drafting-prisoners-law-ukraine-war-attrition/32627429.html
US Poling on Russia
https://www.pewresearch.org/global/2023/05/10/americans-hold-positive-feelings-toward-nato-and-ukraine-see-russia-as-an-enemy/#:~:text=Over%20six%2Din%2Dten%20Americans,the%20Russian%20invasion%20of%20Ukraine.
Poling on US war in Afghanistan
https://edition.cnn.com/2009/POLITICS/09/15/afghan.war.poll/
https://www.cbsnews.com/news/publics-views-of-afghanistan-war-have-turned-sour/
https://news.gallup.com/poll/115270/americans-afghanistan-war-worth-fighting.aspx
Polling on US war in Iraq – 2006
https://news.gallup.com/poll/23374/american-public-opinion-iraq-five-conclusions.aspx
Polling on the US war in Iraq – 0082
https://www.pewresearch.org/2008/03/19/public-attitudes-toward-the-war-in-iraq-20032008/
US poling on Ukraine:
https://www.pewresearch.org/politics/2022/03/15/public-expresses-mixed-views-of-u-s-response-to-russias-invasion-of-ukraine/pp_2022-03-15_ukraine-russia_00-05/
https://www.pbs.org/newshour/politics/almost-half-of-americans-think-u-s-spending-too-much-on-ukraine-aid-ap-norc-poll-says
https://news.gallup.com/poll/513680/american-views-ukraine-war-charts.aspx
The US affirming "As long as it takes":
https://www.ft.com/content/ebe3fb32-ec99-4a9a-a757-51e2203223be
Reporting on Ukraine’s ‘will not back down’ stance
https://www.aljazeera.com/news/2023/11/29/ukraine-fm-vows-to-keep-fighting-while-lobbying-nato-support
Stoltenberg on the need to prepare for a long war
https://www.theguardian.com/world/2023/mar/22/jens-stoltenberg-nato-chief-west-support-ukraine-for-long-war
Bloomberg on mobilisation changes in UA
https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2023-11-30/zelenskiy-faces-manpower-dilemma-in-ukraine-s-stalled-offensive?embedded-checkout=true
Article source for Avdiivka image
https://kyivindependent.com/ukraine-war-latest-russia-loses-roughly-4-000-soldiers-in-avdiivka-worst-casualties-rate-in-2023/
Corrections & Caveats:
All usual caveats and comments obviously apply, including but not limited to those specifically set out in this video. This video is intended for entertainment purposes and should not be relied on as the basis for commercial or other decisions.
Timestamps:
00:00:00 — Opening Words
00:01:18 — What Am I Talking About?
00:02:04 — War Exhaustion
00:13:51 — Impacts And Drivers
00:16:14 — Exhaustion As Strategy In Ukraine
00:20:07 — Ukraine
00:30:53 — Russia
00:41:23 — The United States
00:53:31 — The European Union
00:58:57 — The UK
01:02:01 — What Does This Mean?
01:03:27 — Conclusion
01:04:47 — Channel Update
Content Creator – Perun
