October 22, 2023, 3:02 pm
Many weapon systems sent to Ukraine or deployed by Russia have been characterised by at least some commentators as potential "game changers."
From Javelin to Lancet and the Leopard 2, many new systems have been introduced and/or scaled up in use over the course of the war, and some have entered in dramatic fashion (as with the recent ATACMS strikes).
In this episode I review a sample of "game changer" systems, discuss how we might evaluate whether or not a system deserves the title, and figure out what each did, or didn’t, do to change the war in Ukraine.
Patreon:
https://www.patreon.com/PerunAU
Caveats & Comments:
Correction relating to the stated number of ATGM launchers and missiles in UA in 2022 – the 950 launchers are for relatively modern, long range systems. They exclude thousands of NLAWs, 9K111 and 9K115-2 missiles in UA hands.
All normal caveats and comments apply.
Relevant Reading/sourcing
Credit to all featured twitter post creators including but not limited to – @COUPSURE, @Tatarigami_UA, and @Rebel44CZ
Meatgrinder: Russian Tactics in the Second Year of Its Invasion of Ukraine – Jack Watling and Nick Reynolds
https://static.rusi.org/403-SR-Russian-Tactics-web-final.pdf
Rusia’s Artillery War in Ukraine: Challenges and Innovations – Sam Cranny-Evans:
https://rusi.org/explore-our-research/publications/commentary/russias-artillery-war-ukraine-challenges-and-innovations
Stormbreak: Fighting Through Russian Defences in Ukraine’s 2023 Offensive – Jack Watling and Nick Reynolds
https://static.rusi.org/Stormbreak-Special-Report-web-final_0.pdf
Preliminary Lessons in Conventional Warfighting from Russia’s Invasion of Ukraine: February–July 2022 -Mykhaylo Zabrodskyi, Jack Watling, Oleksandr V Danylyuk and Nick Reynolds
https://static.rusi.org/359-SR-Ukraine-Preliminary-Lessons-Feb-July-2022-web-final.pdf
Reporting on Javelin April 2022
https://www.wsj.com/articles/ukrainian-forces-get-crash-course-on-javelin-missiles-from-u-s-volunteers-11651224602
Featured Warzone article featuring revetments
https://www.thedrive.com/the-war-zone/widespread-destruction-seen-after-blasts-at-russian-base-in-crimea
Lancet reported on
https://www.reuters.com/world/europe/cheap-russian-drone-menace-ukrainian-troops-equipment-2023-06-28/
https://www.rferl.org/a/lancet-drones-russia-invasion-counteroffensive-kamikaze/32493513.html
The Airbase strike
https://www.forbes.com/sites/davidaxe/2023/10/10/a-russian-drone-just-knocked-out-a-ukrainian-attack-jet-on-the-ground-at-its-base/?sh=3dd68049ae2f
https://www.businessinsider.com/video-russian-lancet-drone-range-hits-ukrainian-mig-29-jet-2023-9
Russian Lancet kamikaze UAV strike hit Ukrainian Su-25 at Dolgintsevo airfield in the Dnipropetrovsk region. This airfield is 60km behind the front lines confirming the increased range of the weapon. pic.twitter.com/an2Bk5hWZz
— ayden (@squatsons) October 10, 2023
Foreign components in Lancet
https://www.pravda.com.ua/eng/articles/2023/08/28/7417354/
And the successor:
https://en.defence-ua.com/weapon_and_tech/russia_is_developing_the_scalpel_kamikaze_drone_a_cheaper_analogue_of_the_lancet_uav-7915.html
2023 Javelin reporting
https://www.washingtonpost.com/world/2022/08/05/ukraine-war-javelins-russia-tanks/
Various articles on hyped systems
https://www.wsj.com/articles/himars-transform-battle-for-ukraine-modern-warfare-11665169716
https://www.reuters.com/world/europe/ukraine-says-it-has-destroyed-50-ammunition-depots-using-himars-war-with-russia-2022-07-25/
https://en.topwar.ru/226738-pressa-ssha-ukrainskaja-armija-lishilas-srazu-dvuh-shvedskih-tankov-strv122-unichtozhennyh-rossijskimi-dronami-lancet.html
https://kyivindependent.com/ukraine-receives-the-first-set-of-refurbished-leopard-tanks-from-poland/
https://www.forbes.com/sites/davidaxe/2023/10/04/ukrainian-troops-recovered-one-of-their-damaged-strv-122-tanks-in-time-for-the-tank-to-meet-the-president/?sh=6e41797a7b4b
https://www.forbes.com/sites/davidhambling/2023/01/19/why-russias-terminator-vehicle-might-be-the-next-stage-in-tank-evolution/?sh=7e58ffed6228
https://www.newsweek.com/how-american-m777-howitzers-turning-tide-ukraine-war-russia-1705184
Featured images of artillery cages
https://www.rferl.org/a/makeshift-armor-ukraine-war-invasion-mad-max/32369222.html
Ukrainian M109 with anti-lancet cage
byu/BlackMarine inTankPorn
CSIS on Javelin
https://www.csis.org/analysis/will-united-states-run-out-javelins-russia-runs-out-tanks
https://www.csis.org/analysis/saint-javelin-limited-supply
Timestamps
00:00:00 — Game Changers
00:01:30 — What Am I Talking About?
00:02:17 — Understanding "Game Changers"
00:08:41 — Javelin (and Other ATGMS)
00:15:50 — HIMARS, GMLRS & TOS-1A
00:26:34 — ATACMS
00:39:58 — the Lancet
00:49:58 — Leopards & Terminators
01:00:47 — Reflecting on "Game Changers"
01:03:07 — Conclusion
01:04:22 — Channel Update
Content Creator – Perun
