May 19, 2024, 3:02 pm
In some respects, advanced submarines are a kind final boss of sorts in the world of naval warfare. Stealthy and well armed, for many nations these resource intensive platforms have underpinned naval strategy and nuclear deterrence for years. Investments in submarines and their associated industrial bases have been on the rise in countries like the USA and PRC for years, and we’ve seen new powers either obtain or seek to obtain nuclear submarine capability.
But much of the value of the submarine comes from the assumption that submerging brings stealth. And with new or predicted technological developments, some are predicting that in coming years or decades, that assumption may no longer hold true.
So today, we look at submarines, some of the technologies that might threaten them, and ask what the future might bring for these underwater hunters.
Patreon:
https://www.patreon.com/PerunAU
Relevant Reading/sourcing:
Bradbury, Bainbridge, ,Daniell, Anne-Marie Grisogono, Nabavi, Stuchbery, Vacca, Vella & Williams – Transparent Oceans? The Coming SSBN Counter-Detection Task May Be Insuperable
https://nsc.crawford.anu.edu.au/sites/default/files/publication/nsc_crawford_anu_edu_au/2020-05/transparent_oceans_report_anu_nsc_2020_0.pdf
Bradbury, Grisogono, Williams & Vella in the Strategist on the above
Advances in detection technology could render AUKUS submarines useless by 2050
Brixey-Williams – Prospects for game-changers in submarine-detection technology
Prospects for game-changers in submarine-detection technology
The Future of the Undersea Deterrent: A Global Survey
https://nsc.crawford.anu.edu.au/publication/16145/future-undersea-deterrent-global-survey
Evan Lisman – Non-Acoustic Submarine Detection 2019
https://ontheradar.csis.org/issue-briefs/non-acoustic-submarine-detection/
CRS – Navy Columbia (SSBN-826) Class Ballistic Missile Submarine Program: Background and Issues for Congress
https://sgp.fas.org/crs/weapons/R41129.pdf
CSIS – The First Battle of the Next War
https://csis-website-prod.s3.amazonaws.com/s3fs-public/publication/230109_Cancian_FirstBattle_NextWar.pdf?VersionId=WdEUwJYWIySMPIr3ivhFolxC_gZQuSOQ
Andrew Davies – Submarines: does Moore mean less?https://www.aspistrategist.org.au/submarines-does-moore-mean-less/
The Atlantic – Where the Whale Things Are
https://www.theatlantic.com/science/archive/2016/03/where-the-whale-things-are/471795/
Submarines vs surface ships in wargames
https://www.afr.com/companies/manufacturing/collins-class-sub-shines-in-hawaii-war-games-20000707-k9kir
https://www.popularmechanics.com/military/navy-ships/a19784775/gotland-class-sub-ronald-reagan-war-games/
ICESat-2 website
https://icesat-2.gsfc.nasa.gov/space-lasers
Squadron Leader Wren & Squadron Leader May – Detection of Submerged Vessels Using Remote Sensing Techniques (1997 ADFJ)
https://nuke.fas.org/guide/usa/slbm/detection.pdf
Reporting on Chinese detection innovations
Reporting on Indian SLBM test
https://www.aljazeera.com/news/2022/10/15/india-says-submarine-launched-ballistic-missile-test-is-success
Wake Detection images, reporting and solicitations (incomplete)
https://www.forbes.com/sites/davidhambling/2020/11/16/new-us-navy-airborne-radar-may-spot-submerged-submarines/?sh=584f4ee955d4
Featured Guardian article
https://www.theguardian.com/australia-news/2021/oct/05/will-all-submarines-even-nuclear-ones-be-obsolete-and-visible-by-2040
Navy Lookout – Killing submarines by drone
USNI News – Sonar equipped drone fleets could be key to future submarine warfare
https://news.usni.org/2020/03/09/sonar-equipped-drone-fleets-could-be-key-to-future-submarine-warfare
Caveats & Comments:
All normal caveats and comments apply. In particular – I would like to note as always that this material has been created for entertainment purposes and is not intended to be a complete or comprehensive examination of the topic in question and should not be relied upon to inform financial or other similar decisions.
Timestamps:
00:00:00 — Opening Words
00:01:05 — What Am I Talking About?
00:01:34 — What Am I Not Talking About
00:01:50 — History
00:11:49 — What Makes A Submarine?
00:24:08 — Emutopia & Kiwiland
00:28:12 — The Economics
00:34:42 — Vulnerabilities
00:50:03 — Countermeasures And Challenges
00:52:40 — The Submarine Fights Back
00:53:34 — If Not The Submarine
01:00:01 — What Next?
01:01:51 — Channel Update
Content Creator – Perun
