April 5, 2026, 6:02 pm
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Regional conflicts can have global consequences, and the war in the Middle East is no exception.
The jump in energy prices appears to have pushed Ukraine to ramp up strikes on Russian energy export infrastructure to limit Moscow’s ability to cash in on higher energy prices.
Meanwhile, at the front, its expected Russian offensive activity will accelerate as we enter the traditional campaign season.
So in this episode I cover how the war in the Middle East has changed the balance in Ukraine, what we might expect from a Spring Offensive, and what some of the advantages and disadvantages these forces might have be as the fighting once again accelerates.
Patreon:
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Reading and Sourcing (To be completed 06/04/2026 due to late release):
Example of a report saying Russia’s Spring Offensive has already begun
https://www.independent.co.uk/news/world/europe/putin-spring-offensive-russia-ukraine-b2945585.html
Example of a recent report saying the Russian offensive is still being prepared
https://meduza.io/en/feature/2026/04/01/ukraine-halts-russian-advances-across-key-sectors-as-moscow-prepares-a-new-offensive-meduza-analyzes-the-latest-battlefield-developments
Report doubting a major Russian offensive will eventuate
https://www.themoscowtimes.com/2026/02/25/heavy-losses-make-russian-unlikely-to-launch-major-new-offensive-bloomberg-a92044
RUSI – Tactical Developments in the Third Year of the Russo Ukrainian War (2025)
https://static.rusi.org/tactical-developments-third-year-russo-ukrainian-war-february-2205.pdf
Reporting and images on Energy Strikes:
https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2026-04-02/russia-baltic-crude-terminal-looks-undamaged-in-satellite-images
Tankers Still Not Entering the Russian Port of Primorsk in the Leningrad Region
https://www.rferl.org/a/ukraine-strikes-russia-oil-exports/33717215.html
https://www.ukrinform.net/rubric-economy/4107614-drone-attacks-on-ustluga-port-damage-oil-loading-terminal-reuters.html
Reporting on potential impact on U.S. shipments to Ukraine
Trump Threatens to Halt Ukraine Aid Unless NATO Helps Unblock Strait of Hormuz
Featured reporting examples on motorised assaults
https://www.pravda.com.ua/eng/news/2026/04/01/8028174/
Ukrainian Armed Forces defeat Russians on ATVs and Akhmat armored vehicles in Kursk region
Source of CSIS chart on projected future U.S. arms deliveries to Ukraine
https://csis-website-prod.s3.amazonaws.com/s3fs-public/2025-05/250519_Brady_Ukraine_Fight_Fig1_0.png?VersionId=acAEtv2DoV1TVTKBjkJ8.APGqYwT2HcI
Source for ISW territorial control change chart
https://understandingwar.org/research/russia-ukraine/russian-offensive-campaign-assessment-march-31-2026/
Caveats & Comments:
All normal caveats and comments apply. In particular – I would like to note as always that this material has been created for entertainment purposes and is not intended to be a complete or comprehensive examination of the topic in question and should not be relied upon to inform financial or other similar decisions.
Any content relating to the conduct, views, activities or any aspect of any person or character in this video is included for entertainment purposes and does not represent an assertion of fact on those matters or any matters in relation to that person or character.
Care has been taken in compiling data, quotes, and other inputs from various sources but errors can occur. Quotes and included data should be considered illustrative, not definitive and their veracity should not be relied on.
Timestamps:
00:00:00 — Opening Words
00:00:51 — What Am I Talking About?
00:03:02 — a "Spring" Offensive?
00:08:48 — Context
00:14:16 — Ukrainian Long Range Strike
00:29:11 — Ukraine’s Economic Challenge
00:32:52 — Russian Strikes and Movements So Far
00:37:06 — Russian Advantages & Weaknesses
00:51:29 — Ukrainian Advantages & Weaknesses
01:00:23 — What Next?
01:02:04 — Channel Update
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