March 16, 2026, 6:02 pm
Patreon:
https://www.patreon.com/PerunAU
Geography matters.
While U.S. and Israeli aircraft continue to strike targets across Iran, one of Iran’s most powerful strategic levers has been at sea.
The Strait of Hormuz is a vital conduit for global trade – everything from oil and gas to fertiliser and helium. While U.S. strikes may have sunk much of Iran’s fleet (with claims of 100 ships sunk at time of recording) the danger of running the strait has still been enough to paralyse traffic and put the health of the global economy on a timer.
In this episode, I look at the naval war in the Middle East, the impact of the strait being closed, and what options the belligerents might have to try either restore the flow of energy or tighten it further.
For anyone that wants daily updates on the straits, I would stay across the publications by the UKMTO ( https://www.ukmto.org/ukmto-products/advisories) and a callout to Sal from what’s going on with shipping (https://www.youtube.com/@wgowshipping_ )
Reading and Sourcing (Partial, to be expanded 18/03/2026 due to late release))
UKMTO Advisories
https://www.ukmto.org/ukmto-products/advisories
Example – 12 March advisory note
https://www.ukmto.org/-/media/ukmto/products/update-012—jmic-advisory-note-12_mar_2026_final.pdf
Iran Envoy says Iran will not close the strait
https://www.reuters.com/world/middle-east/iran-not-going-close-strait-hormuz-iran-un-envoy-says-2026-03-12/
Reporting on French ships heading to Eastern Med
https://news.usni.org/2026/03/09/french-navy-pledges-10-additional-warships-to-middle-east-escorts-for-strait-of-hormuzv
https://www.defensenews.com/global/europe/2026/03/12/frances-mediterranean-armada-signals-clout-as-middle-east-may-rethink-alliances/
https://www.france24.com/en/tv-shows/t%C3%AAte-%C3%A0-t%C3%AAte/20260312-france-not-sending-any-vessels-to-strait-of-hormuz-defence-minister-says
The Tanker War (1988)
https://www.usni.org/magazines/proceedings/1988/may/tanker-war
Second Lieutenant Quentin Zimmer, U.S. Marine Corps The Tanker War (2025)
https://www.usni.org/magazines/naval-history/2025/june/tanker-war
CSIS – no on is getting through Hormuz
https://www.csis.org/analysis/no-one-not-even-beijing-getting-through-strait-hormuz
Sanctioned ship being hit:
https://gcaptain.com/sanctioned-tanker-skylight-attacked-oman-hormuz/
(sanction info) https://ofac.treasury.gov/recent-actions/20251218
https://www.federalregister.gov/documents/2025/12/22/2025-23583/notice-of-ofac-sanctions-action
Reporting on LCS MCM ships potentially being moved to Asia
https://www.twz.com/sea/u-s-navy-minesweepers-assigned-to-middle-east-have-been-moved-to-pacific
Daniel Maurer – Hypothetical Legal Advice to SecDef
Reporting on Trump’s call for allied participation in Hormuz mission
https://www.theguardian.com/world/2026/mar/15/uk-china-japan-countries-debating-strait-of-hormuz-ships-iran-you-now
Trump post RE Hormuz (Truth social)
https://truthsocial.com/@realDonaldTrump/posts/116229058692001771
Referred to Secretary Hegseth Transcript
https://www.war.gov/News/Transcripts/Transcript/Article/4434484/secretary-of-war-pete-hegseth-and-chairman-of-the-joint-chiefs-air-force-gen-da/
US DoD Law of War Manual – 2023
https://media.defense.gov/2023/Jul/31/2003271432/-1/-1/0/DOD-LAW-OF-WAR-MANUAL-JUNE-2015-UPDATED-JULY%202023.PDFhttps://media.defense.gov/2023/Jul/31/2003271432/-1/-1/0/DOD-LAW-OF-WAR-MANUAL-JUNE-2015-UPDATED-JULY%202023.PDF
Caveats & Comments:
All normal caveats and comments apply. In particular – I would like to note as always that this material has been created for entertainment purposes and is not intended to be a complete or comprehensive examination of the topic in question and should not be relied upon to inform financial or other similar decisions.
Any content relating to the conduct, views, activities or any aspect of any person or character in this video is included for entertainment purposes and does not represent an assertion of fact on those matters or any matters in relation to that person or character.
Care has been taken in compiling data, quotes, and other inputs from various sources but errors can occur. Quotes and included data should be considered illustrative, not definitive and their veracity should not be relied on.
Timestamps:
00:00:00 — Opening Words
00:01:39 — What Am I Talking About?
00:02:14 — Oil Shocks and the Region
00:07:50 — the Modern Chokepoint
00:15:01 — the State of Play
00:19:31 — Who Hurt the Most?
00:23:28 — Why Not Just Open the Strait?
00:36:20 — Mitigations
00:39:43 — Compounding Risks & Mitigations
00:41:42 — Opening the Strait?
00:56:21 — What to Watch?
00:58:07 — Channel Update
Content Creator – Perun
