January 19, 2025, 3:02 pm
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Every war of attrition has at least two sides.
Recently on this channel, we dove into estimates of Russian equipment losses and their remaining stores of equipment after nearly three years of hard fighting (https://youtu.be/TzR8BacYS6U). Today, we’re turning a similar lens on Ukraine.
There will be some differences, more focus on foreign assistance and less on domestic storage levels for example, but the core question is similar.
How are Ukraine’s stocks of heavy equipment holding up as we head into 2025, how has the composition of the force changed, and what might that mean for the balance of the war and any negotiations going forward.
Patreon:
https://www.patreon.com/PerunAU
Reading and Sourcing (to be uploaded 21/01/2025 due to delayed release):
As noted, databases for visually confirmed losses included Oryx and Lostarmour
Links to mentioned or included articles:
https://www.forbes.com/sites/davidaxe/2023/02/16/ukraine-is-going-to-run-out-of-t-64-tanks/
https://www.forbes.com/sites/davidaxe/2024/06/23/ukraine-isnt-anywhere-close-to-running-out-of-t-64-tanks/
Ukraine Begins Testing KF41 Lynx IFV Following Rheinmetall Delivery
https://www.twz.com/air/electronic-warfare-systems-on-ukraines-f-16s-getting-specially-tuned-to-russian-threats-by-usaf
https://www.janes.com/osint-insights/defence-news/land/ukraine-conflict-germany-hands-over-first-rch-155-sph-to-kyiv
https://www.bbc.com/news/articles/c4ng1p72wlwo
https://www.reuters.com/world/us-approves-sending-f-16s-ukraine-denmark-netherlands-2023-08-17/
Rheinmetall’s first equipment repair and production shop opens in Ukraine
https://kyivindependent.com/uk-to-send-ukraine-artillery-barrels-air-defense-system-as-part-of-2-6b-package-funded-by-russian-assets/
https://www.ukrinform.net/rubric-defense/3949352-britain-to-send-150-artillery-barrels-new-mobile-air-defense-system-to-ukraine.html
Caveats & Comments:
All normal caveats and comments apply. In particular – note as always that this material has been created for entertainment purposes and is not intended to be a complete or comprehensive examination of the topic in question and should not be relied upon in any way and/or for any purpose
Any content relating to the conduct, views, activities or any aspect of any person or character in this video is included for entertainment purposes and does not represent an assertion of fact on those matters or any matters in relation to that person or character.
Timestamps:
00:00:00 — Opening Words
00:00:53 — What Am I Talking About?
00:03:06 — the Ukrainian Equipment Model
00:05:55 — Assumptions and Adjustments
00:08:41 — IFVs
00:18:18 — Reconciling Losses
00:29:44 — MBTs
00:40:29 — APCs, IMVs & MRAPs
00:44:55 — Aircraft
00:54:18 — Notes and Trends
01:02:02 — Channel Update
Content Creator – Perun
