December 21, 2025, 3:02 pm
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The war in Ukraine has delivered its fair share of military firsts, now we have another one.
Ukraine’s use of an Unmanned Underwater Vehicle (UUV) to attack a heavily defended Russian harbour target may not be a demonstration of a new technology, but it is a novel use in an actual war. Today, we discuss its implications, escalating strikes against tankers, the war at sea and tools both sides are using to fight it.
Patreon:
https://www.patreon.com/c/PerunAU
Reading and Sourcing:
Example reporting on Novorossiysk strike
https://www.ft.com/content/4a8ba3f9-cfdd-445e-984e-e3d1ff1d845e
https://www.twz.com/sea/ukraine-claims-worlds-first-underwater-drone-attack-on-russian-submarine
https://www.twz.com/news-features/aftermath-of-ukraines-underwater-drone-attack-on-russian-submarine-seen-in-satellite-imagery
https://www.reuters.com/world/europe/ukraine-hits-russian-submarine-first-underwater-drone-attack-2025-12-15/
Bomber drone attack in the Med
https://www.twz.com/news-features/ukraine-strikes-russia-linked-tanker-in-the-mediterranean-with-bomber-drone
Black Sea Shipping Insurance costs spike
https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2025-12-03/black-sea-war-insurance-soars-250-after-ukraine-ship-attacks
Russian oil prices featured articles or commentary
https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2025-12-16/russia-oil-prices-hit-lowest-since-war-began-on-western-pressure
https://x.com/delfoo/status/2000872391669633269
CREA – Analysis of Russian energy exports and sanctions
November 2025 — Monthly analysis of Russian fossil fuel exports and sanctions
TASS on Russian defence spending and strain
https://tass.com/defense/2060361
Caspian sea strike claims
https://kyivindependent.com/ukrainian-special-forces-hit-russian-hunter-patrol-ship-with-kamikaze-drone/
https://x.com/wartranslated/status/2002005854829060594
Russians block access to Novorossiysk after the attack
Russians Block Access to Naval Base in Novorossiysk After SSU Strike
Identifying the Russian sub
OSINT by Paint: Submarine Struck by Ukrainian Underwater Drone Identified as B-271 Kolpino
Russian Oil prices Reporting
https://www.themoscowtimes.com/2025/12/19/russian-oil-prices-sink-below-35-per-barrel-a91496
Russian oil revenues lowest since 2022
https://uk.finance.yahoo.com/news/russias-oil-fuel-export-revenues-090802216.html
Source image for a Kilo launching Kalibr
https://www.armyrecognition.com/archives/archives-naval-defense/naval-defense-2023/russian-kilo-class-submarine-launches-kalibr-missile-near-japan
Russian Black Sea Oil diversions
https://oilprice.com/Latest-Energy-News/World-News/Russias-Oil-Exports-Face-Delays-as-Tankers-Take-70-Longer-Route.html
Russian black sea submarine numbers (2024 report)
https://www.navalnews.com/naval-news/2024/07/russia-deploys-three-submarines-armed-with-cruise-missiles-to-sea-for-the-first-time/
https://en.defence-ua.com/news/how_many_project_636_varshavyanka_submarines_does_russia_have_left_in_the_black_sea-16828.html
Example Russian UUV development pre 2022
Russia develops preliminary design of AIP unit for Sarma UUV
Russia scraps gasoline import tariffs
https://www.themoscowtimes.com/2025/10/01/russia-to-scrap-gasoline-import-tariffs-additive-ban-in-bid-to-stabilize-fuel-market-a90688
Red Sea traffic volumes
https://www.lloydslist.com/LL1153796/Red-Sea-traffic-remains-60-lower-than-normal-volumes
Sevastopol Defences Image
https://www.navalnews.com/naval-news/2023/04/new-defenses-show-russia-on-defensive-in-sevastopol-as-ukraine-attacks/
Caveats & Comments:
All normal caveats and comments apply. In particular – I note that this material has been created for entertainment purposes and is not intended to be a complete examination of the topic and should not be relied upon to inform financial or other any other views and/or decisions.
Any content relating to the conduct, views, activities or any aspect of any person or character in this video is included for entertainment purposes and does not represent an assertion of fact on those matters or any matters in relation to that person or character.
Care has been taken in compiling data, quotes, and other inputs from various sources but errors can occur. Quotes and included data should be considered illustrative, not definitive and their veracity should not be relied on.
Timestamps:
00:00:00 — Opening Words
00:00:55 — What Am I Talking About?
00:03:10 — Ukraine vs the Black Sea Fleet
00:08:25 — the Strike
00:15:56 — Did the Ukrainians Get Lucky?
00:22:31 — How Much Does This Hurt?
00:24:57 — the Oil and Energy Campaign
00:41:45 — Thinking Wider
00:48:53 — What Next?
00:52:39 — Channel Update
Content Creator – Perun
