August 31, 2025, 6:02 pm
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By popular vote, let’s talk Russian oil refineries, what makes the strikes this August different to past Ukrainian efforts, and also what might still be missing from Ukraine’s ability to maximise the impact on Russia’s economy and willingness to negotiate.
Patreon:
https://www.patreon.com/c/PerunAU
Reading and Sourcing (WIP):
US Strategic Bombing Survey Oil Division final report (1947)
https://babel.hathitrust.org/cgi/pt?id=mdp.39015011672485&seq=1
RAND – Air power as a coercive instrument (1999)
https://www.rand.org/content/dam/rand/pubs/monograph_reports/2007/MR1061.pdf
Russian oil firm net incomes from:
https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2025-08-30/russian-oil-majors-report-income-dip-on-weak-price-strong-ruble
Reuters 17% figure:
https://www.reuters.com/business/energy/russian-oil-refineries-terminals-burn-ukraine-hits-putins-war-economy-2025-08-25/
idle capacity figure:
https://www.reuters.com/business/energy/russias-idle-oil-refining-capacity-record-high-after-ukrainian-drone-attacks-2025-08-28/
Sample of attack reporting
https://www.reuters.com/business/energy/lukoils-volgograd-refinery-halts-oil-processing-after-drone-attacks-sources-say-2025-08-18/
https://edition.cnn.com/2025/08/23/europe/ukraine-russia-energy-attacks-intl
https://www.pravda.com.ua/eng/news/2024/03/12/7446062/
Drones Attack Syzran Oil Refinery for the Third Time in a Month
https://abcnews.go.com/Politics/trump-suggests-ukraine-play-offensive-russia-downplays-prospect/story?id=124853787
Ukraine’s Defense Forces Hit Oil Pumping Station of Druzhba Pipeline in Russia’s Tambov Region
https://www.reuters.com/business/energy/russian-oil-refineries-terminals-burn-ukraine-hits-putins-war-economy-2025-08-25/
https://www.politico.eu/article/donald-trump-ukraine-viktor-orban-russia-oil-pipleline-drone/
Ust-Luga
https://www.reuters.com/business/energy/russias-ust-luga-port-operate-half-capacity-september-after-pipeline-damage-2025-08-28/
Zelensky’s "friendship" comments
Reporting on the Druzhba attacks & fallout
https://www.kyivpost.com/post/58968
https://www.intellinews.com/russian-oil-deliveries-to-hungary-off-again-after-third-attack-on-druzhba-pipleline-397653/
Sergey Vakulenko – What is the Real Cost and Benefit of Ukrainian Attacks on Russian Refining? (2024)
https://carnegieendowment.org/russia-eurasia/politika/2024/06/russia-oil-refining-attacks?lang=en
Reporting Russian refining (2024)
https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2024-03-04/russia-recovers-from-ukraine-drone-strikes-as-oil-refining-rises?embedded-checkout=true
Alabuga
https://www.reuters.com/business/media-telecom/russian-tv-shows-teenagers-worlds-biggest-drone-factory-making-arms-hit-ukraine-2025-07-21/
https://t.me/istories_media/9999
Albright & Fargasso on Alabuga
https://isis-online.org/isis-reports/major-developments-at-alabuga-sez-point-to-significant-expansion-in-military-drone-production
U.S. approves ERAM sale
https://www.reuters.com/business/aerospace-defense/us-state-department-approves-potential-sale-air-launched-cruise-missiles-ukraine-2025-08-28/
Post-Alaska negotiations/comments:
https://www.reuters.com/world/china/russias-lavrov-outlines-terms-ukraine-peace-big-power-security-guarantee-no-nato-2025-08-24/
https://www.telegraph.co.uk/us/news/2025/08/25/putin-reluctant-meet-zelensky-says-trump/
Reuters on MOL head statements
https://www.reuters.com/business/energy/head-hungarys-mol-sees-no-reason-wean-off-russian-oil-2024-08-05/
Caveats & Comments:
All normal caveats and comments apply. In particular – I note that this material has been created for entertainment purposes and is not intended to be a complete examination of the topic and should not be relied upon to inform financial or other any other views and/or decisions.
Any content relating to the conduct, views, activities or any aspect of any person or character in this video is included for entertainment purposes and does not represent an assertion of fact on those matters or any matters in relation to that person or character.
Care has been taken in compiling data, quotes, and other inputs from various sources but errors can occur. Quotes and included data should be considered illustrative, not definitive and their veracity should not be relied on.
Timestamps:
00:00:00 — Opening Words
00:00:48 — What Am I Talking About?
00:03:07 — Ukraine’s Strategic Imperative
00:08:06 — Why Oil and Gas?
00:17:30 — Strikes So Far
00:31:41 — Estimating Impacts
00:39:55 — 2024
00:44:27 — the WW2 Precedent
00:50:44 — Missing Pieces
00:55:09 — Defender Lessons
00:59:17 — Conclusion
01:01:13 — Channel Update
Content Creator – Perun
