August 13, 2023, 3:02 pm
Usually on my channel we focus on questions of defence economics – elements like national resources, production, stockpiles and logistics that feed into the ability of a nation to carry on a war.
But I also try to always flag the importance of political and social elements as well – the ways in which politics and the will to fight can complicate what would otherwise be a largely mathematical exercise. While those factors are important however, Russian politics is not my area of academic or professional focus.
Today I’m releasing an interview recorded with Danish military analyst Anders Puck Nielsen at the Royal Danish Defence College. Anders has long had a focus on Russia and the Russian military, and so I was keen to get his thoughts on Russia’s political and social divisions of power, attitudes towards the war, and how these might factor into Ukraine’s theory of potential victory.
All thoughts expressed are obviously his own personal ones (though all slide content was produced by me.)
I hope you enjoy this deviation from the usual format, but you’ll be back to hearing more of me next week.
Anders YT Channel:
https://www.youtube.com/c/AndersPuckNielsen
Patreon:
https://www.patreon.com/PerunAU
Caveats and comments:
As noted – Anders appears in a personal capacity and all views expressed are his own.
In relation to my comments, all the very familiar usual caveats and comments usually attached similarly apply to this episode
Timestamps:
00:00:00 — Theories Of Victory & Russian Political Stability
00:01:54 — What -Am I- Are We Talking About?
00:02:30 — Interviewing: Anders Puck Nielsen
00:03:02 — The War From A Russian Perspective
00:03:42 — Putin’s War For Great Power Status
00:07:15 — How Can This War Be Existential For Russia?
00:09:21 — Does The War Undermine Russia’s Power?
00:16:37 — Kick The Can Down The Road
00:23:17 — Limited But Existential
00:25:46 — A Ukrainian Theory Of Victory
00:26:55 — Ukrainian Resources
00:28:07 — Ukrainian Goals
00:29:47 — Taking Ground (The Hard Way)
00:34:36 — The Political Dimension
00:38:43 — The Russian Citizenry
00:39:24 — Liberal And/or Anti-war Russians
00:39:53 — Ultranationalists
00:40:35 — The Depoliticised Middle
00:43:31 — The Division Of Power
00:43:38 — Political Parties & Politicians
00:44:44 — The Technocrats
00:45:22 — The Siloviki
00:46:11 — Alliances & Relationships
00:47:03 — Putin & The Vertical Of Power
00:47:58 — Indications Of Destabilisation?
00:48:58 — Elections And Fears
00:52:58 — What Would A Breakdown Look Like
00:54:48 — Signals Of Instability
00:59:00 — What Can Ukraine Do?
01:05:06 — Conclusion
01:07:08 — Channel Update
Content Creator – Perun
