March 9, 2025, 3:03 pm
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Most of the time, major international developments and policy changes are slow and incremental. Sometimes, they are dramatic and sudden.
Over the course of the last few months US foreign policy has shifted significantly – and with it, the balance in Ukraine.
This episode I look at the evolution of the war since our last quarterly update to set a baseline for what to expect as negotiations and policy decisions play out – and start to introduce some of the major changes we’ve already seen, from the US aid freeze to escalating European commitments.
Patreon:
https://www.patreon.com/PerunAU
Reading and Sourcing:
Territorial control maps per https://deepstatemap.live/en#12/48.1290000/37.7624000
Territorial change to end Jan per @war_mapper – https://x.com/War_Mapper?ref_src=twsrc%5Egoogle%7Ctwcamp%5Eserp%7Ctwgr%5Eauthor
France on intel sharing – https://www.reuters.com/world/europe/france-offering-intelligence-ukraine-amid-washington-suspension-2025-03-06/
Additional European aid pledges – https://kyivindependent.com/eu-members-pledge-16-billion-in-additional-support-for-ukraine-costa-says/
CSIS – Calculating the cost effectiveness of Russia’s strikes
https://www.csis.org/analysis/calculating-cost-effectiveness-russias-drone-strikes
RUSI – Russian and allied capabilities in modern strike campaign
https://static.rusi.org/russian-and-allied-capabilities-modern-strike-campaign-feb-2025-rusi.pdf
Glide bomb jamming claims (ref to Russian source within)
https://united24media.com/latest-news/russias-glide-bombs-are-no-longer-precise-ukraines-ew-jamming-sends-them-astray-6279
https://www.forbes.com/sites/davidaxe/2025/02/26/ukraine-is-jamming-russian-glide-bombs-all-along-the-front-line-erasing-one-of-russias-main-battlefield-advantages/
Trump on Ukraine being more difficult to deal with than Russia
https://www.bbc.com/news/articles/crknjxj3n4zo
Gerbera drones
https://www.bbc.com/news/articles/crknjxj3n4zo
Hegseth remarks on the need for European and non-European troops in Ukraine
https://www.defense.gov/News/Speeches/Speech/Article/4064113/opening-remarks-by-secretary-of-defense-pete-hegseth-at-ukraine-defense-contact/
Russia "Rules out any options for European peacekeepers in Ukraine"
https://www.reuters.com/world/europe/russia-rules-out-any-options-european-peacekeepers-ukraine-2025-02-26/
https://www.theguardian.com/world/2025/feb/25/kremlin-disputes-trump-claim-russia-would-accept-peacekeeping-troops-in-ukraine
Russian MFA comments on potential ceasefire
https://www.themoscowtimes.com/2025/03/06/temporary-ukraine-ceasefire-unacceptable-russian-mfa-spokeswoman-says-a88277
Kellogg on intel sharing and hitting a donkey with a 2×4
https://apnews.com/article/trump-zelenskyy-kellogg-ukraine-intelligence-sharing-c5da1604549a8f5744a65f4ae581b3e4
Polish minister on Starlink in Ukraine
https://kyivindependent.com/polish-official-warns-of-international-crisis-between-poland-us-if-ukraine-cut-from-starlink/
Polish digital minister warns of ‘big international crisis’ if Musk cuts Ukraine’s Starlink access
Reporting on intel sharing freeze
https://apnews.com/article/ukraine-russia-putin-trump-cia-zelenskyy-5eb2c8025f6bb4b616c86e1fe89bba0f
Reporting on Senator Lankford & potential cuts at US munitions plant
https://kfor.com/news/oklahoma-legislature/lankford-weighs-in-on-doge-voicing-concerns-on-certain-actions/
DOGE to Cut 1,000 Jobs at Largest U.S. Army Ammunition Plant
Glide bomb reporting
https://kyivindependent.com/russias-primitive-glide-bombs-are-still-outmatching-ukraines-air-defenses-killing-more-civilians-2/
Caveats & Comments:
All normal caveats and comments apply. In particular – I would like to note as always that this material has been created for entertainment purposes and is not intended to be a complete or comprehensive examination of the topic in question and should not be relied upon to inform financial or other similar decisions.
Any content relating to the conduct, views, activities or any aspect of any person or character in this video is included for entertainment purposes and does not represent an assertion of fact on those matters or any matters in relation to that person or character.
Care has been taken in compiling data, quotes, and other inputs from various sources but errors can occur. Quotes and included data should be considered illustrative, not definitive and their veracity should not be relied on.
Timestamps:
00:00:00 — Opening Words
00:01:02 — What Am I Talking About?
00:03:09 — Objectives & Background
00:04:44 — the Battlefield
00:16:20 — Driving Factors
00:24:31 — Military Reform
00:37:10 — the Drone Campaign
00:47:53 — the Outlook
00:54:42 — the Now
01:02:31 — Channel Update
Content Creator – Perun
