December 6, 2024, 6:02 am
Since the time of gaining their political independence, the three Baltic states (Estonia, Latvia and Lithuania) have continuously expressed concerns about Russia’s possible actions against them. These concerns grew when Russia collided with Georgia over the breakaway provinces of Southern Ossetia and Abkhasia in August 2008, a year after Estonia was targeted by a coordinated cyber offensive followed by a political fallout with Moscow.
Multiple factors have given the governments of the three Baltic states additional grounds for concerns: Russia’s interference in Ukraine in early 2014; its follow-on annexation of Crimea, and its invasion of Ukraine in February 2022; Moscow’s military power build-up in the country’s north-west, including power projection capability, and intensified operational and exercise activities along its western and north-western perimeter. Lithuania feels particularly vulnerable, given its shared borders with Russia’s Kaliningrad exclave, and with Belarus – Moscow’s principal political-military ally in Eastern Europe.
One of the most serious points of concern is the risk of strategic miscalculations of each other’s intentions in a situation of heightened geopolitical risk, and the ongoing capability build up in the region by both Russia and NATO.
Content Creator – Australian Institute of International Affairs
