December 15, 2024, 6:00 pm
Sponsored by: Private Internet Access: https://www.piavpn.com/Perun
The al-Assad family ruled Syria for more than 50 years. The Syrian civil war has continued for 13.
And yet, when the Assad Government ended, it did so in less than two weeks, with the army largely folding in the face of a surprise opposition offensive and Assad himself fleeing to Moscow.
The future of Syria is now highly uncertain and beyond the ability of a one hour video to fully explore. But there are still question worth exploring now as the situation continues to play out.
Why did Assad’s military crumble, and what are the potential strategic implications for one of his most significant backers?
Patreon:
https://www.patreon.com/PerunAU
Reading and Sourcing (delayed to 17/12 due to late release):
UN ODC – Trafficking Dynamics Across Iraq and the Middle East:
Trends and Responses
https://www.unodc.org/romena/uploads/documents/2024/UN_Iraq_ExSum_240318.pdf
TASS on Syria
https://tass.com/politics/1881911
https://tass.com/world/1884149
https://tass.com/world/1884149
https://tass.com/politics/1887197
https://tass.com/world/1884231
Gregory waters, the slow collapse of the Syrian Army
https://syriarevisited.substack.com/p/the-slow-collapse-of-the-syrian-army
Russian materiel resupply figures to Syria per
https://carnegie-mec.org/2020/03/26/efficiency-of-syrian-armed-forces-analysis-of-russian-assistance-pub-81150 (with assistance from @Rebel44CZ)
Visually confirmed SAA losses per @elmustek
https://docs.google.com/spreadsheets/d/1ZFlGHmLF042wS5ihSwPKOHeeEK6fRy4cwoE_Z8DvSY0/edit?gid=1607894823#gid=1607894823
Reporting on the fall of Hama
https://www.abc.net.au/news/2024-12-06/rebels-take-syrian-city-of-hama-major-blow-to-assad/104691976
Mapping credit to original producers/owners, including @ThomasVLinge
https://www.euronews.com/2024/12/08/in-pictures-celebrations-in-damascus-as-assad-regime-falls
Caveats & Comments:
All normal caveats and comments apply. In particular – I would like to note as always that this material has been created for entertainment purposes and is not intended to be a complete or comprehensive examination of the topic in question and should not be relied upon to inform financial or other similar decisions.
Any content relating to the conduct or political views and/or activities of any person or character in this video is included for entertainment purposes and does not represent an assertion of fact on those matters.
Timestamps:
00:00:00 — Opening Words
00:01:34 — What Am I Talking About
00:03:29 — Background
00:07:02 — The Forces & Operation
00:11:07 — National Decline
00:19:10 — Force Decay
00:32:22 — Waning Foreign Support
00:38:25 — The Opposition Takes Advantage
00:42:53 — All Wars Are Drone Wars
00:51:31 — The Current Phase
00:53:19 — The Impacts – Russia
01:03:05 — The Unknowns To Come
01:04:14 — Channel Update
Content Creator – Perun
