November 26, 2023, 3:04 pm
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As we head into December, Ukraine is getting colder and the campaign friendly weather of mid-year is long gone. Despite that Russia has launched perhaps its largest offensive of 2023, targeting the salient around the Ukrainian city of Avdiivka – burning through armour and manpower in the face of a stubborn Ukrainian defence.
At the same time, with it now clear Ukraine’s Zaporizhzhia offensive will not reach its objectives this year, Ukraine has escalated its efforts on a different front, establishing several small bridgeheads across the Dnipro in Kherson Oblast.
In this episode, I look at some of the key Ukrainian and Russian offensive efforts of late 2023, examine the data we have on losses and attrition, and ask what the fighting might tell us about the state of the forces involved, and the way this war is being fought.
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Relevant Reading:
The sourcing for this episode will look slightly different to normal as it relied more heavily on released footage, imagery, attestations from involved parties etc.
As noted in the video – credit to a number of sources for their work analysing, collecting or compiling the lost data relied on here (including Warspotting, Oryx, Frontintelligence Insight (and @,Tatarigami_UA) @Naalsio26, @Rebel44CZ etc.)
Article in the Economist by Ukraine’s Commander in Chief on the current positional nature of the war and Ukraine’s requirements
https://www.economist.com/by-invitation/2023/11/01/the-commander-in-chief-of-ukraines-armed-forces-on-how-to-win-the-war
Featured TASS article on Russian war aims
https://tass.com/politics/1556743?utm_source=google.com&utm_medium=organic&utm_campaign=google.com&utm_referrer=google.com
Ukrainian source on the 350 armoured vehicles claim used for comparison with VC loss data
https://kyivindependent.com/military-russia-loses-7-000-soldiers-350-armored-vehicles-at-avdiivka/
Spotting of LMUR in Jan 2023
https://defence-blog.com/russias-mi-28-helicopter-spotted-with-new-advanced-missile-in-ukraine/
Source image for the older Dnipro raids
Ukrainian Special Operations Forces (SSO) operating on the Dnipro River in the Kherson Oblast, on Rigid boats – western Ukraine.
byu/_Raven_Roth inUkraineWarVideoReport
Various example reports on Avdiivka & the Dnipro crossings
Bradley IFVs and Leopard 2 Tanks Deployed to Defend Avdiivka
https://www.dw.com/en/ukraine-updates-russia-renews-attacks-on-avdiivka/live-67540356
https://www.themoscowtimes.com/2023/11/13/russias-military-announces-then-backtracks-on-regrouping-in-southern-ukraine-a83083
https://www.bbc.com/news/world-europe-67058953
https://www.businessinsider.com/ukraine-pushed-russian-forces-back-2-5-miles-from-dnipro-river-banks-2023-11
10-15,000 FPV figure being reported
Ukrainian manufacturers supply up to 15,000 FPV drones per month to the Defense Forces
Corrections & Caveats:
All usual caveats and comments obviously apply, including but not limited to those specifically set out in this video.
To those I’ll just reinforce that while visually confirmed loss data is, in my view, a very useful tool when trying to analyse events in Ukraine – it is obviously far from perfect. Please remember that whenever reality and neat analysis collide, reality wins.
00:00:00 — Opening Words
00:01:25 — What Am I Talking About?
00:04:08 — Pre-winter Objectives
00:06:07 — Zaporizhzhia
00:09:46 — Kherson
00:19:13 — Avdiivka
00:33:16 — Assessing Losses
00:52:38 — Trends & Adaptations
00:59:31 — Observations
01:04:51 — Conclusion
01:05:38 — Channel Update
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