February 16, 2025, 3:03 pm
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Larger, but older, is probably a fair summation of the Russian (and Ukrainian) military in 2025 as compared to 2022.
I’ve often focused on questions of equipment or economics rather than manpower regarding the war in Ukraine – in part because of how hard casualties and recruitment are to estimate.
With the war now approaching the end of its third year however, I thought it was necessary to bring together some of the data we have to look at the Russian recruitment and casualty story since Feb 2022.
I do however also want to include an illustrative warning.
The challenge with trying to bring together multiple estimates is we can’t always be sure when estimates are independent vs when they derive from each other
The Russian sources for example are likely drawing on a similar dataset or talking points – and the UK MoD figures included in this episode appear to reference Ukrainian numbers. That should sound a massive note of caution on how to approach these numbers.
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Reading and Sourcing (Partially complete at time of upload as I do not currently have access to my research PC, please consider link source and potential risks before clicking) :
IISS Russian casualty and inflow estimates
https://www.iiss.org/online-analysis/military-balance/2025/02/combat-losses-and-manpower-challenges-underscore-the-importance-of-mass-in-ukraine/
Mediazona obituary tracking:
https://en.zona.media/article/2022/05/20/casualties_eng-trl
Mediazona recruitment tracking
https://meduza.io/en/feature/2024/12/04/even-after-doubling-its-sign-on-bonus-payment-the-russian-army-s-recruitment-rate-is-falling-losses-may-now-outpace-new-enlistments
RUSI – Russian military objectives and capacity in Ukraine through 2024
https://www.rusi.org/explore-our-research/publications/commentary/russian-military-objectives-and-capacity-ukraine-through-2024
RUSI – Meatgrinder: Russian Tactics in the Second Year of Its Invasion of Ukraine
https://rusi.org/explore-our-research/publications/special-resources/meatgrinder-russian-tactics-second-year-its-invasion-ukraine
CEPA – Russia’s Year of Truth: The Soldier Shortage
Indian recruits in Russian army
https://www.dw.com/en/russia-ukraine-indian-recruits-share-frightening-ordeal/a-71562381#:~:text=Last%20month%2C%20India’s%20government%20admitted,Russian%20armed%20forces%2C%20it%20said.
Featured article on Andrey Perlov & other cases
https://www.bbc.com/news/articles/cdrjrp7625mo
Jamestown Foundation, Pavel Luzin – Shoigu has promised combined armies, divisions & brigades
https://jamestown.org/program/shoigu-has-promised-combined-armies-divisions-and-brigades/
Medvedev claimed recruitment figures:
2024
https://www.reuters.com/world/europe/some-450000-russians-signed-contracts-serve-army-2024-says-medvedev-2025-01-24/
2023
https://www.rt.com/russia/586931-russian-military-ranks-growth/
Putin claimed recruitment levels
2023
http://kremlin dot ru/events/president/news/73035
http://kremlin dot ru/events/president/news/75887
2024
https://tass.com/defense/1888171
Russian reporting on the changing staffing levels of the Russian military
https://tass.ru/info/19436809
Russian reporting on changing fitness categories
https://tass.ru/obschestvo/23045717
UK MOD 790,000 Russian casualties figure
https://ukdefencejournal.org.uk/britain-reports-record-russian-casualties-in-ukraine-conflict/
Discussion of potential double counting
https://jamestown.org/program/russian-armed-forces-remain-severely-understaffed/
Source for Trump figure on Russian fatalities
https://www.politico.eu/article/donald-trump-vladimir-putin-russia-ukraine-war-destroying/
Russian mobilisation and 6,000 fatalities claim
https://www.reuters.com/world/europe/russias-partial-mobilisation-will-see-300000-drafted-defence-minister-2022-09-21/
Caveats & Comments:
All normal caveats and comments apply. In particular – I would like to note as always that this material has been created for entertainment purposes and is not intended to be a complete or comprehensive examination of the topic in question and should not be relied upon to inform financial or other similar decisions.
Any content relating to the conduct, views, activities or any aspect of any person or character in this video is included for entertainment purposes and does not represent an assertion of fact on those matters or any matters in relation to that person or character.
There are a few times in this video where a lazy use of KIA creeps in instead of the more correct ‘fatalities’
Timestamps:
00:00:00 — Opening Words
00:01:03 — What Am I Talking About?
00:03:25 — Caveats & Methods
00:04:40 — Russian Manpower Phases
00:22:58 — Charting the Phases
00:25:48 — Changing Demographics
00:33:33 — Inflows
00:44:10 — Estimating Outflows
00:55:12 — the Way Forward
01:01:59 — Channel Update
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