October 6, 2024, 3:02 pm
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We first discussed Russia’s nuclear doctrine in 2022 – arguing that it suggested nuclear use was far less likely that some feared.
Now, Russia is announcing changes to that doctrine, and so I want to look at what’s changing, why, and what it might mean for the risk of nuclear war.
Given the topic, expect the jokes to be a bit sparse…
Patreon:
https://www.patreon.com/PerunAU
Reading and Sourcing (please be mindful with links as always):
Basic Principles of State Policy of the Russian Federation on Nuclear Deterrence
https://www.mid.ru/en/foreign_policy/international_safety/1434131/
Briefing by Foreign Ministry Spokeswoman September 15, 2022
https://mid.ru/ru/foreign_policy/news/1829920/?lang=en
Medvedev on Telegram (2022)
https://t.me/medvedev_telegram/203
Joint Statement on Ukraine (2022)
https://www.state.gov/joint-statement-on-ukraine-2/
Reporting on Russia’s dirty bomb claims (2022)
https://www.reuters.com/world/europe/kremlin-doubles-down-dirty-bomb-claims-2022-10-25/
https://www.reuters.com/world/indias-defence-minister-warns-against-nuclear-weapons-call-with-russian-2022-10-26/
https://www.defense.gov/News/Transcripts/Transcript/Article/3202353/secretary-of-defense-lloyd-j-austin-iii-holds-a-press-conference/
https://tass.com/politics/1526673
https://ren.tv/news/v-mire/1040152-polianskii-nazval-glavnuiu-tsel-kieva-pri-provokatsii-s-griaznoi-bomboi
(India and China playing a role in deterring Russian nuclear use)
https://economictimes.indiatimes.com/news/defence/india-china-helped-deter-russia-from-nuclear-use-says-blinken/articleshow/98228909.cms?from=mdr#google_vignette
Belarus on Russian nuclear weapons in the country
https://www.rferl.org/a/belarus-lukashenka-russia-nuclear-weapons/32920346.html
Infosheet on UK nuclear deterrence policy
https://assets.publishing.service.gov.uk/media/61eea6848fa8f505893f1e03/UK_Nuclear_Deterrence_Policy_Booklet.pdf
Peter Dickinson – Putin will keep escalating his nuclear blackmail until it stops working
Putin will keep escalating his nuclear blackmail until it stops working
Six Days in October (CSIS) – Lachlan MacKenzie
https://csis-website-prod.s3.amazonaws.com/s3fs-public/2024-09/240903_MacKenzie_SixDays_October.pdf?VersionId=slf3As45eT_JKVIXpEsEUwq3SYttzFkP
CSIS – Deter and Divide Russia’s Nuclear Rhetoric & Escalation Risks in Ukraine
https://features.csis.org/deter-and-divide-russia-nuclear-rhetoric/
Discussion of Russia’s changing nuclear doctrine
https://carnegieendowment.org/russia-eurasia/politika/2024/09/russia-nuclear-doctrine-blackmail?lang=en
https://www.reuters.com/world/europe/putin-draws-nuclear-red-line-west-2024-09-27/
https://www.bbc.com/news/articles/c5yjej0rvw0o
2018 US NPR
https://media.defense.gov/2018/Feb/02/2001872886/-1/-1/1/2018-nuclear-posture-review-final-report.pdf
Mariana Budjeryn – Bulletin of the atomic scientists – Why Russia is more likely to go nuclear in Ukraine if it’s winning
Why Russia is more likely to go nuclear in Ukraine if it’s winning
Russia warns US off sending long-range weapons to Ukraine (2022)
https://apnews.com/article/russia-ukraine-nuclear-weapons-government-and-politics-c43d68369418ed2507f5432074d89932
Sarmat test failure
https://www.cbsnews.com/news/russian-icbm-test-launch-failed/
https://www.iiss.org/online-analysis/missile-dialogue-initiative/2024/09/russias-sarmat-icbm-woes/
Russia to stage nuclear exercises
https://www.dw.com/en/would-russia-really-attack-ukraine-with-nuclear-weapons/a-69020821
Medvedev on nuclear use
https://www.aljazeera.com/news/2022/9/22/russia-can-defend-new-regions-with-nuclear-weapons-medvedev-says
https://tass.com/politics/1796377
Scholz citing escalation risk
https://www.politico.eu/article/germany-olaf-scholz-cites-risk-escalation-deliver-taurus-missiles-to-ukraine/
Caveats & Comments:
All normal caveats and comments apply. In particular – I would like to note as always that this material has been created for entertainment purposes and is not intended to be a complete or comprehensive examination of the topic in question and should not be relied upon to inform financial or other similar decisions.
Any content relating to the conduct and/or activities of any person or character in this video is included for entertainment purposes and does not represent an assertion of fact on those matters or in relation to that person or character.
Timestamps:
00:00 — Opening Words
01:28 — What Am I Talking About?
03:56 — Doctrine And Strategy
07:21 — Russian Nuclear Doctrine
15:22 — Nuclear Coercion In 2022
27:18 — The New Doctrine
31:39 — Catalyst
38:02 — The Threat
45:07 — Does Doctrine Matter?
46:54 — The Logic Of Nuclear (Non)Use
52:17 — Nuclear Blackmail
59:50 — Channel Update
Content Creator – Perun
