November 23, 2025, 12:02 pm
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Russia began 2025 expressing confidence in its battlefield prospects. Putin talked about creating new buffer zones and finishing off the Ukrainian military. Most of a year later, Russia’s gains have again been mostly incremental while Ukraine’s ability to strike against valuable Russian targets in the rear has steadily grown.
But despite Russia falling short of their likely goals, Ukraine is clearly under immense pressure. The infantry force is under-strength, the force is stretched, and Russian infiltration tactics, have delivered territorial gains, albeit at a steep price.
This episode then, we look at the Russian Autumn offensive, some of its major fronts (especially Pokrovsk), how the fighting has evolved and what it might tell us about the status of the two forces going into another winter that is expected to be colder and harder than the previous one.
Patreon:
https://www.patreon.com/c/PerunAU
Reading and Sourcing:
Unless otherwise stated, battlefield control maps as per Deepstatemap for consistency with other videos
Pskov restating need to achieve Russian objectives
https://www.aa.com.tr/en/world/russia-says-wants-quick-end-to-ukraine-conflict-but-only-after-achieving-goals/3739719
Russia creates drone warfare force
https://www.twz.com/news-features/russia-creates-new-military-branch-dedicated-to-drone-warfare
Example reporting of Ukrainian UAS operation against Crimean targets
USF Performance dashboard
https://sbs-group.army/subdivision/usf_grouping/?period=daily
Reporting on the "28 point plan"
https://www.axios.com/2025/11/20/trump-ukraine-peace-plan-28-points-
russia
https://edition.cnn.com/2025/11/21/europe/peace-proposal-russia-ukraine-annotated-intl-vis
https://www.foxnews.com/world/u-s-russia-draft-peace-plan-ukraine-requiring-major-concessions-from-kyiv
https://www.bbc.com/news/articles/cde6yld78d6o
https://www.aljazeera.com/news/2025/11/21/trumps-28-point-ukraine-plan-in-full-what-it-means-could-it-work
Reported 120,000 glide bomb production target figure
https://www.reuters.com/business/aerospace-defense/russia-plans-make-up-120000-glide-bombs-this-year-ukrainian-intelligence-says-2025-11-14/
Reporting on Putin’s statements on creating a buffer zone and ‘finishing off’ Ukrainian forces (early 2025)
https://edition.cnn.com/2025/05/22/europe/russia-buffer-zone-ukraine-border-intl
https://www.bbc.com/news/articles/crlxl37wnnyo
Meduza mapping – Pokrovsk control
https://meduza.io/en/feature/2025/11/19/as-the-battle-for-pokrovsk-continues-meduza-s-military-analysts-weigh-the-costs-for-ukraine-on-other-fronts
Russian gelocation map in Pokrovsk per clement molin
https://x.com/clement_molin/status/1989745581837996116/photo/1
Example of a claimed UAS strike on Russian infantry north of Pokrovsk
https://x.com/dillonrpayton/status/1990130121290944843
Zelensky 40% Ukraine made weapons claim
Zelensky: 40% of Weapons at Front are Ukrainian-Made; by the End of 2025 – 50%
Example report on claimed Russian exaggeration of territory taken
https://www.themoscowtimes.com/2025/09/17/russia-inflates-battlefield-gains-after-a-costly-summer-offensive-a90548
Source for draft Ukraine-Russia agreement texts and statements (2022)
https://www.nytimes.com/interactive/2024/06/15/world/europe/ukraine-russia-ceasefire-deal.html
Caveats & Comments:
All normal caveats and comments apply. In particular – I note that this material has been created for entertainment purposes and is not intended to be a complete examination of the topic and should not be relied upon to inform financial or other any other views and/or decisions.
Any content relating to the conduct, views, activities or any aspect of any person or character in this video is included for entertainment purposes and does not represent an assertion of fact on those matters or any matters in relation to that person or character.
Care has been taken in compiling data, quotes, and other inputs from various sources but errors can occur. Quotes and included data should be considered illustrative, not definitive and their veracity should not be relied on.
Timestamps:
00:00:00 — Opening Words
00:01:20 — What Am I Talking About?
00:03:10 — Background
00:08:02 — Politics, Pressure & Campaign
00:12:34 — the Front
00:18:31 — Pokrovsk
00:26:12 — Analysis
00:38:19 — What Does It Tell Us About the Forces?
00:59:26 — Crimea
01:04:39 — Observations and What Next
01:08:00 — Channel Update
Content Creator – Perun
