May 11, 2025, 6:02 pm
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If there is one thing that the last few years have served to highlight, it’s how fragile peace (or at least the absence of active kinetic action) can be.
Early May has already seen a series of cross-border strikes exchanged between two nuclear powers, India and Pakistan, and the world is now waiting to see if an agreed ceasefire will hold.
I’ve been working on an episode on an episode on Pakistan since late 2024 to go along with my original video on India (https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=QvhEN_kHaA4) and had intended to release it later in 2025. Given the circumstances though, I thought it would be worthwhile to bring the release forward and I hope it can provide some useful context.
it will probably be some time yet before there is enough reliable evidence out there to confidently parse what happened with the recent strikes and draw any lessons learned. When I think that can be done, I’ll consider a follow up video. Until then, I hope you find this big picture view of one of the world’s nuclear powers valuable.
Patreon:
https://www.patreon.com/PerunAU
Reading and Sourcing (To be expanded due to late release) :
Unless otherwise indicated, platform and system counts are per MB2024 estimates
Arms exports estimates per SIPRI https://www.sipri.org/databases/armstransfers
Bulletin of the Atomic Scientists – Pakistan Nuclear Weapons 2023
Bulletin of the Atomic Scientists – Pakistan Nuclear Weapons 2024
IMF – Pakistan dataset
https://www.imf.org/external/datamapper/profile/PAK
IMF – India dataset
https://www.imf.org/external/datamapper/profile/IND
Pakistan Debt to GDP ratio per Trading Economics (citing Central Bank of Pakistan)
https://tradingeconomics.com/pakistan/government-debt-to-gdp
Carnegie Endowment – Pakistan nuclear use doctrine (2016)
https://carnegieendowment.org/research/2016/06/pakistans-nuclear-use-doctrine?lang=en
Reporting on Pakistan naval modernisation plans
https://www.defensenews.com/naval/2020/10/14/outgoing-pakistan-navy-chief-reveals-details-of-modernization-programs/
https://www.defensenews.com/naval/2021/11/09/pakistan-receives-new-chinese-made-frigate-how-would-it-fare-against-indias-navy/
https://www.defensenews.com/smr/defending-the-pacific/2023/02/13/how-are-pakistans-naval-modernization-plans-coming-along/
Special message by Lt. Gen. (Retd) Khalid Kidwai
Lt General (Retd) Khalid Kidwai: Deterrence, Nuclear Weapons and Arms Control – Keynote Address
Source for Yahya Khan quotes (1971 Times article)
https://time.com/archive/6816116/the-world-good-soldier-yahya-khan/
Sitara Noor – Pakistan’s evolving nuclear doctrine
https://www.armscontrol.org/act/2023-10/features/pakistans-evolving-nuclear-doctrine#endnote09
Reporting on Indian control of water flows
https://www.bbc.com/news/articles/cd9l9qwyv23o
IISS (2022) – Why Pakistan’s first national-security policy matters for future regional stability
https://www.iiss.org/online-analysis/online-analysis/2022/02/why-pakistans-first-national-security-policy-matters-for-future-regional-stability/
Rabia Akhtar (2022) – Pakistan’s new National Security Policy: A step in the right direction
By Rabia Akhtar
Pakistan’s new National Security Policy: A step in the right direction
Reporting on recent India-Pakistan escalation:
https://www.reuters.com/world/india/pakistan-says-three-air-bases-targeted-by-indian-missiles-2025-05-10/
Caveats & Comments:
All normal caveats and comments apply. In particular – I note, as always, that this material has been created for entertainment purposes and is not intended to be a comprehensive examination of the topic in question and should not be relied upon in any way, including to inform any financial or other decisions, views, actions etc…
Any content relating to the conduct, views, activities or any aspect of any person or character in this video is included for entertainment purposes and does not represent an assertion of fact on those matters or any matters in relation to that person or character.
Quotes and included data should be considered, at most, indicative.
Timestamps:
00:00:00 — Opening Words
00:01:34 — What Am I Talking About?
00:03:45 — History and Outlook
00:13:32 — Objectives and Doctrine
00:17:46 — Pakistan Army
00:21:22 — Pakistan Air Force
00:26:51 — Pakistan Navy
00:30:16 — Evaluating the Conventional Balance
00:31:01 — the Nuclear Deterrent & Doctrine
00:47:24 — Pakistan’s Problems
00:50:02 — Problem 2: Economics
00:57:23 — Problem 3: Reliance & Arms Imports
00:59:18 — Risks and a Way Forward
01:01:46 — Channel Update
Content Creator – Perun
