November 19, 2023, 3:04 pm
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Why are nations building nukes again? And do the ones they have actually work?
The final years of the Cold War and the post-Soviet era that followed were a period of successive victories for efforts at nuclear stockpile reduction and disarmament. Warheads were retired by the tens of thousands and many nations ceased spending vast sums on new nuclear weapons, instead simply conserving those that they had.
But in 2023, efforts at new arms control agreements appear dead in the water, and many nations are now either looking to replace old systems or, like China, expanding their arsenals beyond their present levels.
In this episode, I look at nuclear modernisation, new delivery systems, and the industrial and financial challenges involved.
Patreon:
https://www.patreon.com/PerunAU
Relevant Reading/sourcing (to be expanded)
Bulletin of Atomic Scientists Nuclear notebook for national inventories:
NNSA on Plutonium Pit Production
https://www.energy.gov/nnsa/plutonium-pit-production
Government Accountability Office on US Nuclear Research and Production
https://www.gao.gov/blog/over-budget-and-delayed-whats-next-u.s.-nuclear-weapons-research-and-production-projects
GAO on nuclear forces sustainment and modernisation
https://www.gao.gov/nuclear-weapons-and-forces-sustainment-and-modernization
GAO – “NNSA Does Not Have a Comprehensive Schedule or Cost Estimate for Pit Production Capability”
https://www.gao.gov/products/gao-23-104661
Congressional Budget Office Projected Costs of US nuclear forces 2021 – 2030
https://www.cbo.gov/publication/57130
CBO Projected costs of US nuclear forces 2023-2032
https://www.cbo.gov/publication/59365
USAF Nuclear Weapon Centre Sentinel factsheet
https://www.afgsc.af.mil/Portals/51/Docs/Sentinel/LGM-35A%20Sentinel%20Fact%20Sheet%20cao%206%20Apr.pdf
Mattis and the nuclear sponge
https://www.defensenews.com/space/2017/01/12/mattis-enthusiastic-on-icbms-tepid-on-nuclear-cruise-missile/?mkt_tok=eyJpIjoiWVRabFpqVTBNemszT0RWbSIsInQiOiJhaDhFaXdndE1tWjNnc3NwblkwWWNTWFJ2elgxZzJLVElUTFhUOWtNa3ZQbmhkdXlUd0srU0FjeEtuYzVSSlJPNDUyaDRsVkNzK0JsNG5XVnJVblllcUQ0TDY3bmpud1wvWXZ6OVBwaGMxMlEwWHN3UTFvOVgyMWhmTzd6dFh5SisifQ%3D%3D
NNSA warhead activities factsheet
https://www.energy.gov/sites/prod/files/2019/05/f62/2019-05-02-FACTSHEET-WeaponsActivities.pdf
NNSA W76-1 Fact sheet
https://www.osti.gov/servlets/purl/1357923
CSIS Brief on US Nuclear Modernisation (Hersman, Rodgers & Farabaugh)
https://csis-website-prod.s3.amazonaws.com/s3fs-public/publication/201210_Hersman_US_Nuclear.pdf
US 2022 National Defence Strategy
https://media.defense.gov/2022/Oct/27/2003103845/-1/-1/1/2022-NATIONAL-DEFENSE-STRATEGY-NPR-MDR.PDF
CRS on the 2022 Nuclear Posture Review
https://crsreports.congress.gov/product/pdf/IF/IF12266
CRS on Nuclear Triad
https://crsreports.congress.gov/product/pdf/IF/IF10519
Reporting on claimed failed test of Sarmat
https://www.cbsnews.com/news/russia-test-launch-satan-ii-icbm-missile-failed-putin-new-start-nuclear-treaty/
First Strike IMDb entry
https://www.imdb.com/title/tt2429312/
Kristensen, McKinzie & Postol – How US nuclear force modernization is undermining strategic stability: The burst-height compensating super-fuze
Reporting on production of Pits at Los Alamos
https://time.com/6296743/los-alamos-lab-plutonium-pits-nuclear-weapons/
Report on Sarmat going “on duty”
https://www.aljazeera.com/news/2023/9/2/russia-puts-advanced-sarmat-nuclear-missile-system-on-combat-duty
Wired – on Russian nukes not working
https://www.wired.com/story/nuclear-weapons-testing/
UK House of Commons Library – Nuclear weapons at a glance: UK
https://commonslibrary.parliament.uk/research-briefings/cbp-9077/
Caveats & Comments:
All normal caveats and comments apply.
In particular – I would like to note as always that this material has been created for entertainment purposes and is not intended to be a complete or comprehensive examination of the topic in question and should not be relied upon to inform financial or other similar decisions.
Timestamps
00:00:00 — Nuclear Weapon Modernisation
00:01:08 — What Am I Talking About
00:03:57 — Cold War Proliferation
00:08:47 — Nuclear Legacy And Renewal Decision
00:12:07 — How And Why Of Building A Bomb
00:21:45 — United States
00:34:54 — Russia
00:54:27 — China
01:02:22 — France
01:07:08 — United Kingdom
01:10:55 — Conclusion
01:11:48 — Channel Update
Content Creator – Perun
