August 20, 2023, 12:07 pm
2022 dramatically changed rhetoric around NATO’s strategic position and the importance of conventional military deterrence and preparedness, particularly in Europe.
While many politicians were quick to speak on the need to respond decisively to the new envioronment, both by aiding Ukraine and also building up domestic capability, there was an open question over whether the will and capacity was there to convert announcements into orders and deliveries.
Today, we look at NATO defence spending estimates for 2023 to get an idea of what patterns are emerging, and ask how NATO is responding to the Russian challenge.
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Caveats and Corrections:
The main additional caveat to apply to this video is that the expenditure figures are mostly based on a single source – the defence expenditure figures published by NATO (https://www.nato.int/cps/en/natohq/news_216897.htm)
This means that you may see figures that you think are ‘wrong’ – in that they do not accord with other sources or methodologies – for example SIPRI figures, nationally published figures or documents like the US NDAA. They are used because they allow for the comparison of multiple nations over multiple years using a consistent methodology and definitions.
While if generating figures myself, I would likely use a different figure and methodology in at least some cases, data analysis of this kind prizes consistency over time and between different parties – which is why I’ve chosen not to deviate from these figures during this presentation.
All other normal caveats and disclaimers apply, including the nature of the material as entertainment and apologies for any perceived errors or omissions.
Relevant sources/reading:
Defence expenditure by NATO countries – updated to mid 2023
https://www.nato.int/cps/en/natohq/news_216897.htm
NATO budget announcement: https://www.nato.int/cps/en/natohq/news_210091.htm
NATO strategic concept (June 2022 version)
https://www.nato.int/nato_static_fl2014/assets/pdf/2022/6/pdf/290622-strategic-concept.pdf
DW – what happened to the 100B Euro special fund?
https://www.dw.com/en/what-happened-to-the-german-militarys-100-billion-fund/a-64846571
Article on Russia building 1,500 T90M tanks per year (press X)
https://militarywatchmagazine.com/article/medvedev-t90m-built-tackle-western
Example used in the narrative section:
https://breakingdefense.com/2022/05/russian-attempts-to-restock-its-military-may-be-doomed-to-failure/
Ukraine to buy Rosomak from Poland
https://www.defensenews.com/global/europe/2023/04/03/ukraine-to-buy-100-rosomak-armored-vehicles-from-poland/
Currency charts per tradingeconomics.com
US Security Assistance to Ukraine
https://www.state.gov/u-s-security-cooperation-with-ukraine/
Reporting on Poland announcements:
https://breakingdefense.com/2023/08/poland-signs-deals-for-light-recon-vehicles-heavy-infantry-combat-vehicles-and-apcs/
https://defence-blog.com/poland-to-buy-heavy-infantry-fighting-vehicles/#:~:text=On%20August%2014%20in%20Warsaw,new%20heavy%20infantry%20fighting%20vehicles.
https://defence24.com/industry/poland-announces-an-order-for-1000-borsuk-ifv-and-a-new-heavy-vehicle
Govt visit to Excalibur Army
https://www.excaliburarmy.cz/news/the-prime-minister-of-czech-republic-visited-ea-company-52
Germany 100B Euro fund approved – 2022
https://www.reuters.com/world/europe/german-lawmakers-approve-100-bln-euro-military-revamp-2022-06-03/
Example of production ramp up factor
Poland receives first K2s and K9s
https://www.president.pl/news/poland-receives-first-consignment-of-korean-tanks-howitzers,62099
Example of foreign purchase factor
https://kyivindependent.com/media-denmark-netherlands-buy-new-leopard/
Example industrial and supply agreement – artillery ammo for UA
https://www.reuters.com/world/europe/eu-strikes-deal-boost-ammunition-production-aid-ukraine-2023-07-07/
The mentioned Reuters report on Russian defence expenditures being revised upwards:
https://www.reuters.com/world/europe/russia-doubles-2023-defence-spending-plan-war-costs-soar-document-2023-08-04/#:~:text=LONDON%2C%20Aug%204%20(Reuters),growing%20strain%20on%20Moscow’s%20finances.
Germany to begin work on F-35 plant
https://www.dw.com/en/germanys-rheinmetall-starts-building-f-35-fuselage-plant/a-66406164
Reporting on interrelation between supplementals and national procurement
https://www.defensenews.com/land/2023/03/27/did-ukraine-funding-spare-the-us-army-from-budget-cuts/
Timestamps:
00:00 — The Race To Rearm: NATO Spending In 2023
02:31 — What Am I Talking About?
03:01 — Data Interpretation
06:43 — The Pre-invasion Picture
10:39 — NATO Responds – 2022
19:59 — NATO Figures – 2023
27:32 — National Examples
27:41 — The US
29:26 — Poland
32:33 — Germany
34:36 — Canada
36:35 — Additional Budget Drivers
44:17 — In Perspective
48:24 — Conclusion
49:23 — Channel Update
Content Creator – Perun
