March 24, 2025, 3:03 pm
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Between the Russian invasion of Ukraine and a general shift in focus for many militaries towards conventional deterrence and warfighting rather than counterinsurgency operations, recent years have seen strong demand for major platforms and weapon systems.
Now, with help of newly released data on 2024 exports and imports from SIPRI, I want to unpack the trends we observed in 2024 and ask what we might expect to see in 2025 as spending levels rise and trans-Atlantic tensions challenge old buying patterns.
Patreon:
https://www.patreon.com/PerunAU
Reading and Sourcing :
Primary source for arms transfer data is the relevant SIPRI databases:
https://armstransfers.sipri.org/ArmsTransfer/
Janes on Algerian purchase of the Su-57
https://www.janes.com/osint-insights/defence-news/defence/algeria-becomes-launch-export-customer-for-russias-su-57-national-media-says
Craig Kennedy on Russian War Financing
https://navigatingrussia.substack.com/p/russias-hidden-war-debt
French spy sat launch
https://www.france24.com/en/live-news/20250306-%F0%9F%94%B4european-rocket-ariane-6-launches-on-first-commercial-mission
Jamestown foundation on Rostec revenues and profit levels
https://jamestown.org/program/rostecs-updated-2023-financial-data-shows-decline-in-revenue/
"Swiss weapons must not be used in wars"
https://www.voanews.com/a/swiss-president-defends-neutrality-ukraine-arms-ban/7001266.html
Reporting on Swiss arms export restrictions
https://www.reuters.com/world/europe/neutral-swiss-propose-relaxing-arms-exports-restrictions-2025-02-12/
https://www.reuters.com/world/europe/swiss-arms-exports-fall-government-mulls-looser-curbs-after-ukraine-war-2025-03-11/
Indian order for AL-31FP engines
https://www.defensenews.com/global/asia-pacific/2024/09/17/india-orders-hundreds-of-new-engines-for-su-30mki-fighters/
Reporting on European single defence market
https://www.euronews.com/my-europe/2025/03/20/brussels-seeks-to-create-single-market-for-european-defence
EU 2030 time horizon
https://www.reuters.com/world/europe/eu-agrees-five-year-deadline-boost-defences-against-russia-says-polish-pm-2025-03-21/
Reporting on President Trump’s F-47 comments
https://ukdefencejournal.org.uk/u-s-to-reduce-capabilities-of-new-jet-purchased-by-allies/
Reporting on EU arms purchase focus
https://apnews.com/article/eu-defense-us-ukraine-industry-ammunition-weapons-ea03077814f9113b548d7281f32a11b5
Macron on defence spending targets
https://www.politico.eu/article/macron-urges-europe-to-boost-defense-spending-to-over-3-percent-of-gdp/
Reporting on PRC drone production
https://www.aljazeera.com/news/2023/1/24/how-china-became-the-worlds-leading-exporter-of-combat-drones
Poland’s F-35s
https://www.defensenews.com/global/europe/2024/08/29/first-f-35-for-poland-rolls-out-of-lockheeds-fort-worth-plant/
Mauritanian PRC SAMs
https://armyrecognition.com/news/army-news/army-news-2024/mauritanian-army-acquires-chinese-made-yitian-l-air-defense-systems-with-ty-90-missiles
EU Member defence spending
https://www.consilium.europa.eu/en/policies/defence-numbers/
Rocket motor production
https://www.defenseone.com/business/2023/10/lockheed-wants-rocket-motor-maker-its-own-gmlrs-and-more/391287/v
Qatar receives Eurofighters (2022)
Qatar receives its first Eurofighter Typhoon at official ceremony in the UK
Saudi Arabia receives European Corvettes
Caveats & Comments:
Please consider familiarising yourself with SIPRI’s methodology on the creation of its arms transfer and other databases:
https://www.sipri.org/databases/armstransfers/sources-and-methods
All normal caveats and comments apply. In particular – I would like to note as always that this material has been created for entertainment purposes and is not intended to be a complete or comprehensive examination of the topic in question and should not be relied upon to inform financial or other similar decisions.
Any content relating to the conduct, views, activities or any aspect of any person or character in this video is included for entertainment purposes and does not represent an assertion of fact on those matters or any matters in relation to that person or character.
Care has been taken in compiling data, quotes, and other inputs from various sources but errors can occur. Quotes and included data should be considered, at most, indicative.
Timestamps:
00:00:00 — Opening Words
00:00:52 — What Am I Talking About?
00:02:49 — Data and Methodology
00:04:35 — 2024
00:12:34 — Russia
00:23:20 — United States
00:29:25 — Europe
00:34:43 — China
00:40:52 — Other Players
00:45:29 — a Boom Not Captured?
00:50:24 — the Path Forward
00:56:37 — Channel Update
Content Creator – Perun
