March 2, 2026, 3:06 pm
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2026 has shown both how easy it is to start a war, and how difficult it can be to end one.
As conflicts flare in the Middle East and Afghanistan, the war in Ukraine entered its fifth year since the Feb 2022 invasion.
In those four years, the armies have changed, and so to has our understanding of modern warfare.
And so in this episode, I take a big picture look at how the military situation has evolved, and stands, in 2026. That will hopefully set the stage for a number of data driven deep dives in the coming weeks.
Patreon:
https://www.patreon.com/PerunAU
Reading and Sourcing (partial due to delayed release, to be expanded):
Credit on Russian equipment storage tracking to:
Jompy – @Jonpy99
Covert Cabal – https://www.youtube.com/c/CovertCabal
Visually confirmed loss figures per Oryx
Battlemapping per Deepstate and ISW as marked
CSIS – Russia’s Grinding War in Ukraine
https://www.csis.org/analysis/russias-grinding-war-ukraine
Ukraine to complete shift to corps structure by end of 2025
Ukraine’s Armed Forces to Complete Shift to Corps Structure by Year-End — Syrsky
Reporting on Russian fiber optic imports
https://www.themoscowtimes.com/2026/02/26/russia-forced-to-rely-on-chinese-optical-fiber-imports-after-ukrainian-strikes-halt-domestic-plant-a92054
Reporting on the UAS kill zone in Ukraine
Reporting on relevant combat UGV employment
Reported FP-7 test
https://x.com/bayraktar_1love/status/2027411713423733194
Ukrainian Counterattack claims (UA media)
https://understandingwar.org/research/russia-ukraine/russian-offensive-campaign-assessment-december-31-2025/
Featured chart of rising EU defence spending
https://www.consilium.europa.eu/en/policies/defence-numbers/
Russian demands for Donbas persist
https://www.reuters.com/world/europe/kremlin-sticks-demand-that-ukraine-cede-all-donbas-talks-tass-reports-2026-01-26/
https://www.bbc.com/news/articles/cp84nl57v0lo
https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2026-02-28/russia-weighs-halt-to-peace-talks-unless-ukraine-cedes-territory
Ukrainian statements on ceasefire line
https://www.aa.com.tr/en/russia-ukraine-war/russia-ukraine-war-should-stop-with-ceasefire-at-current-contact-line-ukrainian-official/3734371
CSIS – Russia-Ukraine war in 10 charts
https://www.csis.org/analysis/russia-ukraine-war-10-charts
Caveats & Comments:
All normal caveats and comments apply. In particular – I would like to note as always that this material has been created for entertainment purposes and is not intended to be a complete or comprehensive examination of the topic in question and should not be relied upon to inform financial or other similar decisions.
Any content relating to the conduct, views, activities or any aspect of any person or character in this video is included for entertainment purposes and does not represent an assertion of fact on those matters or any matters in relation to that person or character.
Care has been taken in compiling data, quotes, and other inputs from various sources but errors can occur. Quotes and included data should be considered illustrative, not definitive and their veracity should not be relied on.
Timestamps:
00:00:00 — Opening Words
00:01:18 — What Am I Talking About?
00:03:16 — the Battle Lines
00:08:39 — Losses & the Changing Force
00:22:07 — the Nature of the Fighting
00:30:53 — Features of the Fighting
00:44:07 — the Big Picture
00:53:36 — Channel Update
Content Creator – Perun
