September 15, 2024, 6:03 pm
Sponsored by: Private Internet Access: https://www.piavpn.com/Perun
We’ve spent a lot of time in the past talking about systems that have been called ‘game changers’ or arguably overperformed in Ukraine, relative to either expectations, costs, or both.
Today, we look at some of the opposite – systems that may not be having the expected impact, and which might prompt some thinking in planners observing the Ukrainian experience.
Patreon:
https://www.patreon.com/PerunAU
Reading and Sourcing:
DoD Reimbursable Rates FY2023
https://comptroller.defense.gov/Portals/45/documents/rates/fy2023/2023_b_c.pdfv
BMD-4M Product Information
https://roe.ru/eng/catalog/land-forces/armored-combat-vehicles/bmd-4m/
US Army – FY 2025 Budget Estimates – Aircraft Procurement, Army
https://www.asafm.army.mil/Portals/72/Documents/BudgetMaterial/2025/Base%20Budget/Procurement/Aircraft-Procurement-Army.pdf
Program Acquisition Cost by Weapon System United States Department of Defense Fiscal Year 2025 Budget Request
https://comptroller.defense.gov/Portals/45/Documents/defbudget/FY2025/FY2025_Weapons.pdf
Chatham House – Assessing Russian Plans for Military Regeneration
https://www.chathamhouse.org/sites/default/files/2024-07/2024-07-09-assessing-russian-plans-military-boulegue-et-al.pdf
Excalibur announcement and initial arrival reporting
https://www.defense.gov/News/News-Stories/Article/Article/3179784/himars-excalibur-rounds-headed-for-ukraine-in-625-million-security-assistance-p/
https://interestingengineering.com/videos/ep-5-why-is-the-m982-excalibur-round-a-game-changer-in-ukraine
Reporting on Polish AH-64 purchase
https://www.dsca.mil/sites/default/files/mas/Press%20Release%20-%20Poland%2023-48%20CN.pdf
https://www.reuters.com/world/poland-buys-96-apache-helicopters-us-2024-08-13/
https://breakingdefense.com/2024/08/a-breakthrough-moment-for-polish-military-aviation-as-apache-deal-is-signed/
Reporting on Russian EW
https://www.businessinsider.com/us-gave-up-sending-ukraine-100k-excalibur-shells-hit-targets-2024-5
Roger McDermott "Shamanov Fights for VDV’s Future" – 2012
https://jamestown.org/program/shamanov-fights-for-vdvs-future/
Selected Acquisition Report (SAR) – AH-64E Apache New Build – Dec 2022
https://www.esd.whs.mil/Portals/54/Documents/FOID/Reading%20Room/Selected_Acquisition_Reports/FY_2022_SARS/AH64E_New_Build_SAR_DEC_2022_edited.pdf
Reporting on FARA
https://www.flightglobal.com/defence/how-combat-helicopter-losses-in-ukraine-brought-down-us-armys-fara-strategy/157468.article
https://www.defensenew s.com/air/2024/02/08/us-army-spent-billions-on-a-new-helicopter-that-now-will-never-fly/
Russian Ultra-nationalist rally report 2007
https://www.reuters.com/article/us-russia-racist/russian-ultra-nationalists-rally-as-police-watch-idUSL2851145120070128/
Japan
https://www.australiandefence.com.au/defence/land/japan-to-ditch-attack-helicopters#:~:text=Japan%20has%20declared%20its%20intention,five-year%20defence%20buildup%20plans
interceptor drone vs Helicopter
https://www.twz.com/air/ukraine-situation-report-russians-say-their-mi-8-hip-helicopter-shot-down-by-drone
Hellfire 2
https://www.lockheedmartin.com/content/dam/lockheed-martin/mfc/pc/hellfire/23-05810-TM_AGMS-HELLFIRE-II-Product-Card-1.pdf
JAGM
https://www.lockheedmartin.com/content/dam/lockheed-martin/mfc/pc/jagm/22-15188-TM-AGMS-Product-Card-Updates-JAGM.pdf
Polish Chunmoo order
https://www.janes.com/osint-insights/defence-news/industry/poland-orders-second-batch-of-chunmoo-mrlsv
Reporting on EW in Ukraine
https://kyivindependent.com/the-invisible-war-inside-the-electronic-warfare-arms-race-that-could-shape-course-of-the-war/
https://www.afr.com/world/europe/russia-has-the-upper-hand-in-electronic-warfare-with-ukraine-20240108-p5evul
Spike NLOS + AH-64
https://www.defenceconnect.com.au/joint-capabilities/13280-lockheed-martin-successfully-completes-spike-nlos-from-apachev
Caveats & Comments:
All normal caveats and comments apply. In particular – I would like to note as always that this material has been created for entertainment purposes and is not intended to be a complete or comprehensive examination of the topic in question and should not be relied upon to inform financial or other similar decisions.
Any content relating to the conduct or political views and/or activities of any person or character in this video is included for entertainment purposes and does not represent an assertion of fact on those matters.
Timestamps:
00:00 — Opening Words
00:54 — What Am I Talking About?
03:08 — Rating This
05:15 — When Precision – Isn’t
07:30 — Excalibur
12:51 — GLSDB
20:10 — The Paradrop Problem
32:19 — Speaking Of Attack Helicopters
35:45 — Attack Helicopter Losses
41:08 — Polish Figures
47:04 — What Could It Be Instead?
54:01 — Not The End For Rotary…
58:13 — Channel Update
Content Creator – Perun
