July 16, 2023, 3:02 pm
Description:
While systems like tanks, jets and cruise missiles tend to capture the public imagination, the war in Ukraine in 2023 is largely being fought with much the same tools as it was in 2022 – artillery.
The constant exchange of fire has been critical to the battle, enabling attrition, blunting attacks and enabling advances. Both sides have continued to adapt, trying to refine their tactics and capabilities while wearing down their opponent.
But in this attritional struggle, losses and resupply of systems, barrels and ammunition matter, not just tactics. Ukraine now finds itself in an ammunition deficit – trying to attack at a time where its allies have not yet ramped up production enough to readily meet its needs.
It’s in that context that the US recently announced the supply of cluster munitions to refill Ukraine’s ammunition bunkers. Today we look at those munitions, their likely impact, as well as the broader course of the artillery war in Ukraine one year on from my original video on the topic "outgunned"
Patreon:
https://www.patreon.com/PerunAU
Caveats and comments:
historical data is limited less by the fog of war and more by the quality and limitations of the study in question (as with the CM figures from Vietnam)
Regarding cluster munitions – I have tried to give a frank evaluation of the current regulations and their potential application – but must note that this does not in itself represent an endorsement of the production, transfer or employment of these munitions in contravention of the CCM
All usual caveats – including the content’s intended role as entertainment and all statements coming with an * serving interchangeably as "reportedly" "allegedly" or similar
Relevant Reading:
Covert Cabal counting RUssian artillery
RUSI – Russian tactics in the second year
https://static.rusi.org/403-SR-Russian-Tactics-web-final.pdf
Armament Research, Development & Engineering Centre – Picatinny Arsenal
The evolution of Artillery for increased effectiveness
https://ndiastorage.blob.core.usgovcloudapi.net/ndia/2008/psa_peo/Demella.pdf#page=19
RUSI on cluster munitions
https://www.rusi.org/explore-our-research/publications/commentary/giving-ukraine-cluster-munitions-necessary-legal-and-morally-justified
GAO artillery inventory NSIAD-95-89
https://www.govinfo.gov/content/pkg/GAOREPORTS-NSIAD-95-89/html/GAOREPORTS-NSIAD-95-89.htm
US army ammunition procurment justification book – FY2020
https://www.asafm.army.mil/Portals/72/Documents/BudgetMaterial/2020/Base%20Budget/Procurement/04%20Procurement%20of%20Ammunition%20Army.pdf
Official Russian economic statistics
https://rosstat.gov.ru/storage/mediabank/osn-04-2023.pdf
Jamestown Foundation on Russian arms manufacturing:
https://jamestown.org/program/the-true-state-of-russian-arms-manufacturing-june-2023/
National Anti-Corruption Bureau of Ukraine
https://nabu.gov.ua/en/
Reporting on DPICM to Ukraine
https://www.japantimes.co.jp/opinion/2023/05/03/commentary/world-commentary/u-s-ukraine-ammo/
https://www.nbcnews.com/politics/donald-trump/trump-denounces-bidens-decision-send-ukraine-cluster-munitions-rcna93704
https://www.theguardian.com/us-news/2023/jul/07/joe-biden-military-aid-ukraine-war-cluster-bombs-human-rights-groups
German ammunition production for Ukraine reporting
https://news.yahoo.com/germany-plans-produce-250-000-215709716.html
https://tass.com/world/1614189
British estimate on Russian ammunition expenditure
https://kyivindependent.com/uk-armed-forces-chief-russia/
Reporting on ammunition shortages and expenditures
https://time.com/6263802/ukraine-west-ammunition-shortages
https://apnews.com/article/russia-ukraine-nato-politics-european-union-europe-66fdaa3eb94605337f698340c9df6341
https://kyivindependent.com/investigation-eu-inability-to-ramp-up-production-behind-acute-ammunition-shortages-in-ukraine/
https://www.euronews.com/my-europe/2023/07/07/eu-agrees-500-million-deal-to-ramp-up-production-of-munition-for-ukraine-and-for-own-stock
Reporting on claimed Iranian ammunition going to Russia
Removal of General Popov
https://www.aljazeera.com/news/2023/7/13/russia-general-in-ukraine-removed-over-strategy-criticism-report
Russia rocket technical
https://defence-blog.com/russian-improvised-rocket-launcher-spotted-in-ukraine/
Ukrainian 203mm firing US made rounds
Timestamps:
00:00:00 — The Artillery War In Ukraine — 2023
00:01:48 — What Am I Talking About?
00:02:25 — The Decisive Weapon
00:08:01 — Changing Tools & Tactics
00:13:14 — Losses & Trends
00:24:35 — Ammo Consumption
00:32:17 — Cluster Munitions & The Debate
00:50:14 — Russian artillery sustainability
00:59:00 — NATO+
01:08:34 — Next Steps
01:11:42 — Conclusions
01:12:58 — Channel Update
Content Creator – Perun
