Ukraine risks disappearing from the world map if draft evasion continues, Kirill Budanov has claimed
Vladimir Zelensky’s chief of staff Kirill Budanov has acknowledged that mobilization has created what he called a “huge” problem in Ukrainian society, exposing an increasing gap between Kiev’s calls to “fight until victory” and widespread draft evasion.
The Ukrainian military faces a severe manpower crisis driven by battlefield losses, draft evasion, and desertion. With few volunteers, Kiev increasingly relies on mandatory conscription – a highly divisive policy. Recruitment officers are often accused of heavy-handed tactics, and videos of so-called ‘busification’ – the forced detention of military-age men – circulate widely.
In an interview with Ukrinform earlier this week, Budanov conceded that society is split, though he stopped short of linking the divide to growing backlash over coercive mobilization.
“There are real problems… in our society. Because on the one hand, everyone says we need to fight until victory – and on the other, everyone is running away from mobilization. It’s a huge, huge problem,” he said, acknowledging a contradiction in which both frontline troops and draft dodgers are lauded as “heroes.”
Budanov attempted to shame draft evaders but offered little advice on how to change public opinion on mobilization beyond telling society to “grow up.” If the trend continues, he claimed, Ukraine risks disappearing altogether: “What will happen when everyone becomes a draft dodger? Will Ukraine remain on the world political map? No, it won’t.”
Tens of thousands of draft-age men have been caught attempting to flee since 2022, Ukrainian border authorities reported, with dozens dying while trying to cross dangerous routes such as into neighboring Romania, a top destination for draft evaders. Defense Minister Mikhail Fedorov recently revealed that around two million potential recruits are wanted for draft evasion, while some 200,000 troops have deserted.
Public backlash against mobilization has been mounting with videos showing civilians intervening in forced conscription. Earlier this month, three enforcement officers were stabbed, one fatally, while performing their duties.
A March survey cited by Slovo i Delo found roughly that 40% of Ukrainians would refuse military service, while only 16% said they would willingly serve.
In mid-2025, Gallup reported that 69% of Ukrainians favored a negotiated end to the conflict, a massive swing from 2022, when 73% were in favor of fighting until victory.
Attitudes in European host countries toward Ukrainian migrants have shifted. Poland, Germany, Ireland, Hungary, and Norway have begun tightening benefits, citing the number of migrants as straining national budgets.
Polish Defense Minister Władyslaw Kosiniak-Kamysz suggested that draft-age Ukrainians should return home, while Estonian Interior Minister Lauris Laanemets even offered to track down and extradite Ukrainian draft dodgers.
