Analysts say investors hope for a positive change in the geopolitical climate with a power shift in the White House
The Russian stock market has rallied amid reports of Donald Trump’s likely victory in the US presidential election. The Republican candidate has already declared victory after securing wins in key battleground states in the race for the White House against Democrat Kamala Harris.
Shares in all major Russian companies have been on the rise since preliminary results of the US election started to appear. Stock in state energy giant Gazprom grew by 5% in morning trading, while Lukoil shares jumped by 2.8%. Shares in oil major Rosneft were up by 3%, while Tatneft saw a 4.6% increase. Shares in mining giant Norilsk Nickel rose by 3.6%, while aluminum major Rusal saw its stock jump by 3.4%. The country’s largest lender,Sber,saw a gain of 3.6%. Diamond major Alrosa stock surged by 5.3%, while Russia’s national airline, Aeroflot, saw its stock spike by 5.9%.
The country’s top tech player Yandex, often referred to as ‘Russia’s Google’, saw its stock rise by 2.8%. Major retailers MVideo and Ozon also saw shares surge by over 6%.
The ruble-denominated Moscow Exchange (MOEX) index was up 3.4% as of 09:00 GMT, while the dollar-denominated RTS index rose by 3.3%.
Analysts briefed by RBK said the markets had rallied amid investors’ hopes that a victory for Trump would be a positive development for Russia, as he has repeatedly pledged to end to the Ukraine conflict and de-escalate geopolitical tensions.
“For domestic market participants, the possible change of power in the US is associated with timid hopes for a change in rhetoric and approaches,” Mikhail Zeltser, an expert at BCS World of Investments, predicted.
“It is believed that Donald Trump’s victory in [the presidential election] is the lesser evil for Russia, and in such a scenario, our stock market could grow significantly,” Aleksey Antonov, head of Investment Consulting at Alor Broker, noted. Some analysts said they expect Trump’s likely victory to boost growth in stock prices of companies whose business suffered the most as a result of Ukraine-related Western sanctions on Russia, such as Gazprom, Aeroflot, and some exporters.
Other experts warned that Trump’s apparent victory may pose new risks for Russia amid its policy of abandoning the US dollar in trade, which the Republican has criticized. Some also fear Trump’s protectionist position may lead the US towards new trade wars, including against one of Russia’s major international partners, China.
The final US election results have yet to be announced as the ballot count is ongoing. Trump gave his victory speech in Florida when he was three electoral votes shy of the 270 threshold needed to win.
