Prediction markets are surging, enabling wagers of up to $100 million on either Kamala Harris or Donald Trump
Election betting using so-called ‘prediction markets’ is skyrocketing in the US after a ban on the practice was recently lifted, according to media reports. Platforms are currently forecasting a narrow win for Republican candidate Donald Trump against Democratic rival Kamala Harris.
Trading platform Kalshi, which last week won its legal fight against a US regulator in a Washington court, is offering investors the opportunity to stake up to $100 million on the result of the November vote.
The court’s decision came after the Commodity Futures Trading Commission (CFTC) failed to demonstrate harm to elections, despite arguing that such bets are similar to gaming and could undermine democratic integrity. The CFTC’s appeal against the ruling is ongoing.
In the first days since the ban was lifted, more than $12 million has been taken in, according to Kalshi founder Tarek Mansour. He added that the platform is working to attract more traders and several institutional investors.
The bets are structured as binary options, priced up to $1 per contract. As of Monday, contracts favoring the former US president traded at 54 cents, while those for current Vice President Harris were at 47 cents. The prices also reflected a widening gap between Trump and Harris that has fluctuated between 51 and 49 cents for either candidate since the market opened a week ago.
Although betting prices may indicate belief among traders that Trump will win the election, experts are cautious, saying that only the participation of institutional players could bring a clearer assessment.
“You may want more institutional money because while these investors might have their own particular political views, they’ll have studied the outcome and their wagers represent especially informed opinion,” Grant Ferguson, a political scientist and a follower of prediction markets at Texas Christian University told the Financial Times on Tuesday.
Offshore prediction platforms such as Polymarket have also seen a surge in bets with over $1.9 billion staked on the presidential race. Experts expect volumes to soar tenfold as election day approaches.
