Germany’s opposition conservatives have won a nationwide vote, with the right-wing AFD coming in second, exit polls show
German Chancellor Olaf Scholz conceded defeat on Sunday, congratulating his conservative rival Friedrich Merz, whose Christian Democratic Union/Christian Social Union (CDU/CSU) alliance is projected to win a snap election. Exit polls published by public broadcaster ZDF show the CDU/CSU leading with 28.5% of the vote, while Scholz’s Social Democrats (SPD) suffered a historic low of just 16.5% – their worst showing since World War II.
”This is a bitter election result for the Social Democratic Party. It is also an electoral defeat,” Scholz acknowledged in his first statement after the results were released, as quoted by Reuters. Addressing his opponent, Scholz congratulated him on the outcome.
Merz promised to act quickly in forming a government. “Tonight, we celebrate, and from tomorrow, we start working… The world out there is not waiting for us,” he said.
The right-wing Alternative for Germany (AfD) also made history by finishing second with nearly 20% of the projected vote – the party’s strongest national result to date. Party co-leader Alice Weidel called the outcome “historic,” declaring that AfD is “open to coalition negotiations… otherwise, no real policy change will be possible in Germany.”
Scholz’s governing coalition, which collapsed in November after the Free Democrats (FDP) withdrew, also suffered significant losses. The Greens polled at 12%, while the FDP barely cleared the 5% threshold required to enter parliament.
Analysts predict that a “grand coalition” between the CDU/CSU and SPD – Germany’s dominant centrist parties – remains the most viable path to forming a government. The two parties have shared power four times since WWII, most recently under former Chancellor Angela Merkel. However, it remains uncertain whether Scholz will play a role in any new government. Merz himself earlier ruled out cooperation within the same cabinet.
The CDU/CSU has moved further to the right under Merz’s leadership, particularly on migration policy, marking a departure from Merkel’s more centrist approach. The election campaign was dominated by heated debates over immigration, exacerbated by a series of attacks involving migrants.
In a surprise move, US Vice President J.D. Vance and tech billionaire Elon Musk openly weighed in. Vance met with Wiedel in Germany last week, and their meeting reportedly focused on the Ukraine conflict, German domestic policies, and freedom of speech, including the so-called ‘Brandmauer’, or “firewall against the right.”
Musk has long criticized Scholz as a “fool” and endorsed Weidel for chancellor, talking to her during a live chat. The billionaire also made a surprise appearance during an AFD election campaign event in Halle in late January, speaking publicly in support of the party.
