July 7, 2024, 3:02 pm
Discussions of escalation management in Ukraine are usually framed from a Western perspective and the incremental provision of aid by Ukraine’s allies. But as the war carries on Moscow faces escalation dilemmas of its own.
It has an imperative to escalate in ways that place as much pressure on Ukraine as possible, but often attempts to do so prompt responses from Ukraine’s allies that put Russia in a worse place than when it started.
Today, we look at four recent Russian lines of escalation and effort in Ukraine, from the Kharkiv offensive to the new partnership agreement with North Korea. We ask what the logic might have been behind those moves, what the effect has been, and ask the question….will they improve Russia’s position or leave it at greater risk than before.
Patreon:
https://www.patreon.com/PerunAU
Reading and Sourcing (WIP) :
Maps of territorial control per Deepstatemap as always
Visually confirmed equipment losses per Oryx
Kharkiv specific figures per @naalsio26
TASS on KCNA releasing the agreement text:
https://tass.com/politics/1805661
TASS on the Putin ‘peace plan’ (including the requirement for a Ukrainian withdrawal)
https://tass.com/pressreview/1804269
Reporting on Results of the Swiss summit
https://apnews.com/article/ukraine-russia-switzerland-war-conference-burgenstock-568cafee5fbe9c3b19b79b041583a5d6
Estonian MoD: Setting Transatlantic Defence up for Success: A Military Strategy for Ukraine’s Victory and Russia’s Defeat
https://kaitseministeerium.ee/sites/default/files/kaitseministeerium_2023veeb_17.12.pdf
Reporting on US restricting Ukrainian strikes on Russian territory
https://www.washingtonpost.com/world/2024/06/21/ukraine-firing-range-us-weapons-russia/
Reporting on Zelensky removing Lt Gen Yuriy Sodol
https://www.bbc.com/news/articles/c7225wrzlpqo
Reporting on Ammunition Supply
https://www.reuters.com/world/europe/ukrainian-gunners-finally-get-shells-stop-russians-near-kharkiv-2024-05-21/
US sending legacy SAMS to Ukraine
https://www.reuters.com/world/europe/us-send-ukraine-air-defense-missiles-next-aid-package-officials-2024-06-28/
TASS on Russian advance in Kharkiv slowing
https://tass.com/politics/1797759
Featured Guardian article on Kharkiv
https://www.theguardian.com/world/article/2024/jun/16/russian-soldier-says-army-suffering-heavy-losses-in-kharkiv-offensive
Reporting on the ‘buffer zone’ motive for the Kharkiv offensive
https://www.politico.eu/article/kharkiv-capture-ukraine-war-russian-invasion-vladimir-putin-buffer-zone-belgorod/#:~:text=And%20I%20have%20said%20publicly,be%20no%20comfort%20to%20Ukrainians.
Chasiv Yar
https://www.reuters.com/world/europe/russia-says-it-took-control-district-chasiv-yar-ukraine-2024-07-03/
Featured Stoltenberg quote
https://www.nato.int/cps/en/natohq/news_227330.htm
The response to the Putin peace offer at the Swiss summit
https://www.bbc.com/news/articles/cxee131gejpo
Included Kharkiv image
https://www.voanews.com/a/ukraine-says-it-hit-latest-generation-russian-fighter-jet-for-first-time/7648644.html
BBC on Putin’s ceasefire offer
https://www.bbc.com/news/articles/c033eyyr20do
Caveats & Comments:
All normal caveats and comments apply. In particular – I would like to note as always that this material has been created for entertainment purposes and is not intended to be a complete or comprehensive examination of the topic in question and should not be relied upon to inform financial or other similar decisions.
Timestamps:
00:00:00 — Opening Words
00:01:19 — What Am I Talking About?
00:01:43 — The Russian Effort
00:04:38 — Battlefield Dynamics
00:11:32 — Losses & Costs
00:20:10 — Kharkiv And Escalation
00:26:28 — The Korean Connection
00:39:26 — The Long Range Campaign
00:47:59 — Putin’s "Peace"
01:00:58 — What Next?
01:02:56 — Channel Update
Content Creator – Perun
