June 13, 2024, 3:03 am
More than two years have passed since Russia’s invasion of Ukraine. Although accurate casualty figures are difficult to ascertain, well over half a million people have been killed or wounded, and many more displaced.
The war has passed through several phases, from the initial stalled Russian invasion and Ukrainian counter-attacks, a long period of grinding Russian attritional attacks, the failed Ukrainian 2023 offensive, and the defeat of the Russian Black Sea fleet.
Russia currently controls 18 percent of Ukraine’s territory and appears to have the military initiative. Ukraine’s victory, and maybe even survival, depends on Western support that appears susceptible to Russian propaganda. Russian victory may be equally difficult with few options acceptable to the Kremlin other than a long war with high human, social and economic costs.
So how might the war progress from here? Can either side see their way to victory? Can the war be contained? What might be the long-term impact on Russia?
AIIA Victoria invites you to join Richard Iron for a further appraisal of the military strategies and the possible courses of the Ukraine conflict.
Content Creator – Australian Institute of International Affairs
