June 9, 2024, 3:02 pm
For both military and civilian applications, launching satellites into orbit has long been both useful and incredibly expensive. But over the last decade, the costs to put payload into orbit have shrunk dramatically, driven by launchers like the SpaceX Falcon 9 & Falcon Heavy while the number of satellites in orbit has exploded.
And now, with tests proceeding with the two-stage Starship super-heavy, it may be that even cheaper access to space is on the horizon.
In this episode we explore why demand for orbital assets is increasing, how the US retook top spot in the Space Race, and what systems like Starship might mean for the future if they perform as advertised.
Patreon:
https://www.patreon.com/PerunAU
Caveats, Comments and Corrections:
All normal caveats and disclaimers apply
In particular – I note as always that this material has been created for entertainment purposes and is not intended to be a complete or comprehensive examination of the topic in question and should not be relied upon to inform financial or other similar decisions, judgements or evaluations.
For notes on costs and launch estimates – see notes further below.
Also see notes in description regarding nomenclature.
Readings and Sources:
RUSI – Jamming JDAM
https://www.rusi.org/explore-our-research/publications/commentary/jamming-jdam-threat-us-munitions-russian-electronic-warfare
VICTUS NOX
https://www.ssc.spaceforce.mil/Newsroom/Article-Display/Article/3679056/us-space-force-successfully-concludes-victus-nox-tactically-responsive-space-mi
Q1 upmass by launch provider image from – https://x.com/BryceSpaceTech?ref_src=twsrc%5Egoogle%7Ctwcamp%5Eserp%7Ctwgr%5Eauthor
Space X smallsat rideshare program
https://www.spacex.com/rideshare/
PayloadResearch – The Starship Report
https://payloadspace.com/starship-report/
Futron – -Space Transportation Costs: Trends in Price Per Pound to Orbit 1990-2000 (used as baseline for costs for older systems)
https://www.yumpu.com/en/document/read/36996100/space-transportation-costs-trends-in-price-per-pound-to-orbit-
U.S. Army on next-gen satcom
https://www.army.mil/article/249066/army_leverages_innovative_industry_partnerships_for_next_gen_satcom_capabilities
USAF – The U.S. Air Force Transformation Flight Plan (2003)
https://apps.dtic.mil/sti/tr/pdf/ADA458089.pdf
DARPA contracting for DRIFT
https://breakingdefense.com/2023/05/darpa-contracts-4-firms-for-drift-radar-imagery-experiments/
SpaceX launches NRO payloads
https://www.reuters.com/technology/space/spacex-launches-first-satellites-new-us-spy-constellation-2024-05-22/
SpaceX 2023 launches at a glance image
https://www.reuters.com/technology/space/musks-spacex-is-building-spy-satellite-network-us-intelligence-agency-sources-2024-03-16/
Included video of the Singapore Satellite Industry Forum 2013
https://x.com/StormSurgeMedia/status/1675932589930979351
Reporting on PRC sat goals
https://www.defenseone.com/technology/2024/02/china-building-its-own-starlinkeven-questions-surround-musks-constellation/394453/
Satellite imagery for Ukraine
https://breakingdefense.com/2022/08/iceye-to-supply-ukraine-with-sar-satellite-imagery-via-ukrainian-foundation/
The Space Industry After the Russo-Ukrainian War
Sanctions and Satellites: The Space Industry After the Russo-Ukrainian War
Space X losing 40 sats
https://www.theguardian.com/science/2022/feb/09/spacex-to-lose-up-to-40-starlink-satellites-after-geomagnetic-storm
Ariane 6
https://phys.org/news/2024-06-europe-delayed-ariane-rocket-july.html
OneWeb taking the hit for cancelled Soyuz launch
OneWeb takes $229 million charge for canceled Soyuz launches
BBC on India moon mission
https://www.bbc.com/news/world-asia-india-67621968
Note on launch mass and cost per payload estimates.
Calculating the ‘cost/price per KG’ of a system can be difficult. Different launches involve different margins and additional (e.g. safety or national security) demand driven costs.
The manner in which project and related costs are rolled into launch costs or prices is also inconsistent across sources.
For this video, values should be treated as indicative and are generally based on a compilation of publicly available prices and launch data compiled by Jakub Janovsky (@Rebel44CZ) – out of necessity, some assumptions have been required (e.g. including estimating payload mass).
Unless otherwise noted, costs are based on prices for commercial launches.
Timestamps:
00:00:00 — Opening Words
00:01:21 — What Am I Talking About?
00:02:04 — Space Driven Advantage
00:07:10 — The Constellation Revolution
00:14:53 — The Constellation Escalation
00:19:01 — Capacity As The Commodity
00:23:29 — National Launch Programs: Russia
00:32:44 — Let’s Talk USA
00:35:19 — SpaceX Path To Dominance
00:49:05 — Starship And Its Implications
00:55:57 — Other Players?
00:59:51 — The Way Forward
Content Creator – Perun
