April 21, 2024, 3:03 pm
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For decades, much of the conflict between Iran and Israel has played out indirectly via proxies or through deniable or covert actions.
This month however, things changed dramatically. Following an airstrike in Syria that killed an Iranian General, Iran’s Revolutionary Guards launched a large-scale missile and drone attack on Israeli targets.
What followed was a major, multinational air defence operation and, it seems, a potential small scale Israeli response.
In this episode I look at the background to the Iranian strike, the observations we can make about the attack and defensive operations, and what it might mean for the region.
Patreon:
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Caveats, Comments and Corrections:
All normal caveats and disclaimers apply
In particular – I would like to note as always that this material has been created for entertainment purposes and is not intended to be a complete or comprehensive examination of the topic in question and should not be relied upon to inform financial or other decisions or purposes
Readings and Sources:
Iran’s Ballistic and Cruise missiles – CSIS 2020
https://missilethreat.csis.org/wp-content/uploads/2020/04/Iranian-Missiles-Map-2020.jpg
Featured Washington Post piece
https://www.washingtonpost.com/world/2024/04/17/iran-israel-attack-drones-missiles/
CRS – Iran’s Ballistic Missile and Space Launch Programs
https://sgp.fas.org/crs/nuke/IF10938.pdf
Ballistic and Cruise Missile Threat 2020
https://irp.fas.org/threat/missile/bm-2020.pdf
Guardian article including the “almost certainly trigger all-out war” quote
https://www.theguardian.com/world/2024/apr/15/how-will-israel-respond-iran-attack-war
CSIS – missile threat profile on Emad
Tweet by Permanent Mission of Iran to the UN
Conducted on the strength of Article 51 of the UN Charter pertaining to legitimate defense, Iran’s military action was in response to the Zionist regime’s aggression against our diplomatic premises in Damascus. The matter can be deemed concluded. However, should the Israeli…
— I.R.IRAN Mission to UN, NY (@Iran_UN) April 13, 2024
RUSI – Iran’s failed offensive against Israel
https://www.rusi.org/explore-our-research/publications/commentary/pulling-punches-irans-failed-offensive-against-israel
Reporting on Israeli strike on Iran
https://www.bbc.com/news/world-middle-east-68852522
https://www.reuters.com/world/middle-east/israeli-missiles-hit-site-iran-abc-news-reports-2024-04-19/
https://www.aljazeera.com/news/2024/4/19/israeli-missiles-hit-site-in-iran-explosions-heard-in-isfahan-report
https://www.nytimes.com/live/2024/04/20/world/israel-iran-gaza-war-news
https://www.nytimes.com/live/2024/04/18/world/israel-iran-gaza-war-news
https://www.theguardian.com/world/2024/apr/19/iranian-air-defence-systems-activated-israel-launches-strikes-visual-guide
And Iranian warnings regarding it
https://en.irna.ir/news/85444320/Israel-s-biggest-mistake-will-be-to-respond-to-Iran-s-retaliation
Included IRGC statement on limited systems being used
https://t.me/Tasnimnews/295267
Featured Iranian article on the missile attack as a “sub-threshold” response
https://www.tehrantimes.com/news/497397/From-Strategic-Patience-to-Active-Deterrence
Featured or relevant reporting on the Iranian missile attack and/or shot exchange issues
https://www.reuters.com/world/middle-east/any-air-war-israels-defences-would-trump-irans-high-cost-2024-04-18/
https://www.reuters.com/world/middle-east/iranian-notice-attack-may-have-dampened-escalation-risks-2024-04-14/
https://www.businessinsider.com/iran-destroyed-mock-israeli-jet-base-missiles-before-airfield-attack-2024-4
https://www.bbc.com/news/world-middle-east-68811273
https://www.timesofisrael.com/liveblog_entry/idf-says-air-base-hit-in-iran-attack-running-as-usual/
https://www.csis.org/analysis/iran-israel-air-conflict-one-week
https://www.theguardian.com/world/2024/apr/14/how-irans-attack-on-israel-was-stopped
Reporting on types of Iranian missiles used
https://www.scmp.com/news/world/middle-east/article/3259167/iran-publishes-details-missiles-and-drones-used-israel-attack
Denial of Dimona targeting
https://www.tehrantimes.com/news/497310/Iran-says-claims-of-damage-to-Dimona-nuclear-facility-is-a-psychological
https://en.irna.ir/news/85449489/IRGC-spokesman-Claim-on-Dimona-power-plant-being-damaged-in
Suleimani strike reporting (2020)
https://www.theguardian.com/world/2020/jan/03/baghdad-airport-iraq-attack-deaths-iran-us-tensions
Iran’s 2020 missile strikes on US bases
https://www.theguardian.com/global/video/2020/jan/08/iran-releases-footage-of-missile-attack-on-us-airbases-in-iraq-video
Timestamps:
00:00:00 — Opening Words
00:00:55 — What Am I Talking About?
00:03:12 — Caveats
00:03:50 — The Syria Strike
00:05:56 — The Attacks
00:21:19 — Purpose & Result
00:29:36 — Estimates & Costing
00:34:32 — Winners and Losers?
00:38:54 — Retaliation Options
00:50:55 — The Conflict Continuum
01:00:00 — What Now?
01:00:41 — Channel Update
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