January 28, 2024, 3:06 pm
Even as global attention is pulled in a dozen different directions, the fighting in Ukraine continues amidst a winter cold that provides better conditions than the mud seasons. .
Russia’s offensive has focused on Avidiivka, but fighting has been hard at multiple places along the front.
In this episode, we look at the recent fighting, from Avidiivka to the great Patriot missile road trip, examine the available loss data, look into the question of casualties and mobilisation (including some Sergei Shoigu math) and close out by touching on the wider sustainability issues probably deserve further discussion.
Patreon:
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Relevant Reading/sourcing
Putin on intention to achieve all military goals
https://tass.com/politics/1723935
https://www.theguardian.com/world/2023/dec/19/zelenskiy-and-putin-each-vow-to-press-on-to-victory-in-ukraine-war
Credit to @naalsio26 for localising visually confirmed losses
Russian military size increases
https://www.reuters.com/world/europe/russia-increases-maximum-size-armed-forces-by-170000-servicemen-2023-12-01/
https://www.reuters.com/world/europe/putin-signs-decree-increase-size-russian-armed-forces-2022-08-25/
Shoigu giving Shoigu numbers
https://tass.com/defense/1723781
Putin giving Putin numbers
https://kyivindependent.com/putin-claims-500-000-new-recruits-in-russian-army-over-last-six-months/
The lostarmor site referenced for loss analysis
https://lostarmour.info/minusov-net
The Bradley engagement mentioned
https://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/2024/01/18/ukraine-bradley-fighting-vehicles-disabled-russian-tank/
https://www.thedrive.com/the-war-zone/video-games-helped-ukrainian-bradley-gunner-win-duel-with-russian-t-90m-tank
Ukraine Su-34 claim
https://www.bbc.com/news/world-europe-67809239
Jan 24 missile attacks
https://www.aljazeera.com/news/2024/1/13/ukraine-says-russia-launched-barrage-of-missile-attacks-nationwide
December 23 missile attacks
https://apnews.com/article/russia-ukraine-war-aerial-attack-missiles-drones-fe3fb596cdea0035573a6a677f17070c
DPRK shipments to Russia
https://www.japantimes.co.jp/news/2024/01/11/world/politics/north-korea-missiles-russia-seoul/
Featured image of Koalitsiya
https://defence-blog.com/russia-deploys-its-new-152mm-self-propelled-gun-to-ukraine/
Jamestown foundation on Russian military recruitment
https://jamestown.org/program/russias-crisis-of-restoring-manpower/
Example of volunteer units signing contracts
https://www.themoscowtimes.com/2023/06/22/20-russian-volunteer-units-sign-military-contracts-defense-ministry-a81588
Reference to UA casualty estimates
https://www.reuters.com/world/us-intelligence-assesses-ukraine-war-has-cost-russia-315000-casualties-source-2023-12-12/
Ropucha getting hit
Ukraine strikes Russia’s Project 775 large landing ship in Crimea
Ukraine drone strikes
https://www.reuters.com/world/fire-erupts-russias-novatek-baltic-sea-terminal-after-explosions-heard-2024-01-21/
https://www.aljazeera.com/news/2024/1/24/drones-strike-deep-in-russia-as-medvedev-threatens-ukraines-existence
https://www.reuters.com/world/europe/ukrainian-drones-hit-rosneft-refinery-russia-source-2024-01-25/#:~:text=KYIV%2C%20Jan%2025%20(Reuters),Ukrainian%20source%20said%20on%20Thursday.
https://www.cbsnews.com/news/russia-ukraine-war-russian-oil-depot-ukrainian-drone-attack-klintsy/
Reporting on UA EW
https://www.businessinsider.com/ukraine-hit-turning-point-electronic-warfare-capabilities-isw-russia-missiles-2024-1
Reporting on possible incursion into Polish airspace
https://www.theguardian.com/world/2023/dec/29/russia-launches-huge-wave-missile-strikes-ukraine
Caveats & Comments:
All normal caveats and comments apply.
In particular – I would like to note as always that this material has been created for entertainment purposes and is not intended to be a complete or comprehensive examination of the topic in question and should not be relied upon to inform financial or other similar decisions.
Timestamps:
00:00:00 — Opening Words
00:00:47 — What Am I Talking About?
00:01:20 — The Winter Offensives
00:10:10 — Equipment Losses
00:20:27 — Adaptations And Observations
00:27:17 — The Black Sea Theatre
00:33:25 — The Air War
00:50:18 — Manpower And Mobilisation
01:01:39 — Notes On Resupply
01:06:37 — Conclusion
01:07:08 — Channel Update
Content Creator – Perun
