October 8, 2023, 3:02 pm
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Description:
After more than four months of fighting, Ukraine’s counteroffensive is grinding on. There have been none of the rapid mechanised advances many Ukrainian allies hoped for. Instead, there has been a hard, grinding assault intended to slowly break into, and eventually through, the main belt of Russian fixed defences.
Today I want to look at the way the counteroffensive has evolved over time, what we’ve learned about Russian defences and tactics, and what all of that might mean as months of mud and winter cold grow ever closer.
Patreon:
https://www.patreon.com/PerunAU
Caveats & Comments:
All normal caveats and comments apply.
Relevant Reading/sourcing
Stormbreak: Fighting Through Russian Defences in Ukraine’s 2023 Offensive – Jack Watling and Nick Reynolds
https://static.rusi.org/Stormbreak-Special-Report-web-final_0.pdf
Perseverance and adaptation – Ukraine’s counteroffensive at three months – Kofman
Perseverance and Adaptation: Ukraine’s Counteroffensive at Three Months
FM 20-32 Mine/Countermine operations
https://www.marines.mil/Portals/1/Publications/FM%2020-32%20W%20CH%201-4.pdf
Maj. Robert Rose (Ret.) – Biting off what it can chew: Ukraine understands its attritional context
Biting Off What It Can Chew: Ukraine Understands Its Attritional Context
Russian military strategy core tenents and operational concepts – Michael Kofman, Anya Fink, Dmitry Gorenburg, Mary Chesnut, Jeffrey Edmonds, and Julian Waller
https://www.cna.org/archive/CNA_Files/pdf/russian-military-strategy-core-tenets-and-operational-concepts.pdf
The 5 mines per square meter claim by Reznikov
https://www.pravda.com.ua/eng/news/2023/08/13/7415416/
More about mines
https://www.ft.com/content/bbff1949-4f06-43ad-9691-7c124edbd004
TASS – Russia not planning new mobilisation
https://tass.com/politics/1683701
Zelensky admitting the offensive going slower than desired
https://www.theguardian.com/world/2023/jun/21/volodymyr-zelenskiy-admits-ukrainian-counter-offensive-going-slower-than-desired
Ukraine will fall expectations in Feb 2022
https://www.express.co.uk/news/world/1571627/Ukraine-war-latest-Russia-Kiev-Kyiv-fall-city-army-mobilised-President-Zelensky-Putin
https://thehill.com/policy/national-security/595799-us-intelligence-officials-concerned-kyiv-could-fall-to-russia-within/
Featured report from the Economist
https://www.economist.com/europe/2023/08/20/ukraines-sluggish-counter-offensive-is-souring-the-public-mood
Example Crimean Strikes:
https://edition.cnn.com/2023/07/19/europe/russia-ukraine-crimea-depot-explosion-intl/index.html
UK MoD on 25CAA
https://twitter.com/DefenceHQ/status/1701834290508566971
The question of future US support:
https://www.theguardian.com/world/2023/oct/04/us-house-speaker-kevin-mccarthy-republican-ousting-aid-to-ukraine-joe-biden
https://www.npr.org/2023/10/06/1203961930/ukraine-funding-congress-speakers-race
Featured article on Russia advancing towards Orikhiv in Jan 2023
https://www.aljazeera.com/news/2023/1/22/russia-advances-towards-two-towns-in-zaporizhzhia-region
Grain exports
https://apnews.com/article/ukraine-russia-war-grain-exports-poland-lithuania-7f522211115d06aab93359c5d963a996
Timestamps
00:00:00 — Ukraine’s Counteroffensive
00:01:06 — What Am I Talking About?
00:03:09 — Sources And Exclusions
00:03:42 — Background
00:08:02 — The Defences
00:22:16 — Ground Offensive: South
00:26:08 — The East And Russian Actions
00:29:32 — Escalating Commitment
00:38:36 — The Crimean Campaign
00:42:07 — The Nature Of The Fighting
00:52:13 — Evaluation, Trends And Significance
00:57:02 — What Next?
01:01:11 — Conclusion
01:01:57 — Channel Update
Content Creator – Perun
