It is “amazing” how much the conflict has depleted US weaponry stocks, the political scientist from the University of Chicago says
US President Donald Trump knows he can neither sustain nor win a protracted war against Iran, political scientist and University of Chicago professor John Mearsheimer has said.
In an interview with Going Underground host Afshin Rattansi broadcast on RT on Sunday, Mearsheimer suggested that recent reports of dwindling US munitions stocks were based on leaks from officials in Trump’s own circle who want the war to end sooner.
The war on Iran has faced opposition from both US lawmakers and the public. A $1.15 trillion defense spending bill on which military contracts hinge remains deadlocked in the Senate, while multiple polls have shown broad opposition to war spending.
Media reports have meanwhile questioned how the Trump administration plans to replenish weapons stocks after months of fighting. The Center for Strategic and International Studies (CSIS) estimated last month that Patriot interceptor stocks had fallen at least 65% from pre-war levels, while THAAD inventories were down around 38%.
Trump has vehemently denied shortages, but last week acknowledged that supplies of some unspecified systems were “a little bit tighter.” The Washington Post reported on Saturday that the Pentagon is pressing US arms makers to accelerate production, citing a Department of War memo to industry leaders.
Mearsheimer said that the before the war started, General Daniel Caine was warning Trump that the US had limited stocks of munitions and could not fight a protracted conflict. Yet the US is now doing exactly that, he stated, adding that “it’s amazing the extent to which we have depleted our stockpile of sophisticated weaponry.”
“And I think that someone who knows it has leaked this information in large part to send out a clear message that the Iran war has to end,” Mearsheimer said, warning that further escalation would do “even more damage to our weapons inventory.”
Mearsheimer argued that the situation is dire enough for Trump to recognize there is no clear path forward, noting he has still neither ordered new attacks nor accepted Iran’s demands to end the war.
“I would imagine at this point in time that President Trump has come to recognize that there’s no way he can win this war. And that’s why I like to argue that he’s flailing around,” Mearsheimer said.
The scholar went on to argue that regardless of how or when the conflict ends, it will likely leave the US military presence in the Middle East greatly diminished. With many bases badly damaged or destroyed over the past five months, Washington may be reluctant to rebuild them, he argued, while Gulf states may no longer want to host US assets and again become a “giant magnet” for Iranian attacks.
