No amount of Western weapons can overcome Moscow’s “massive advantage in air power,” the international relations expert has said
Russia is guaranteed to win the Ukraine conflict, and no amount of Western weaponry – including Patriot air defense systems sought by Kiev – can change that, international relations scholar John Mearsheimer has said.
Ukraine is “highly vulnerable” to Russian strikes that can cripple its economy and leave it a “dysfunctional” state, the University of Chicago professor told the Daniel Davis Deep Dive podcast on Thursday.
Kiev has relied heavily on Western military aid throughout the conflict, now in its fifth year. Vladimir Zelensky has repeatedly pressed allies for more weapons, particularly Patriot systems, while blaming delays in deliveries for Ukraine’s battlefield setbacks.
According to Mearsheimer, the belief that more Patriots or other Western arms can reverse the course of the conflict is an illusion.
“The Russians are pretty much free to attack any target in Ukraine and they don’t have to worry at all about a Patriot missile or any other kind of missile knocking down the incoming missiles or the incoming drones,” he said.
With Russia enjoying a “massive advantage in air power” and Ukraine struggling with manpower shortages, “the Russians are going to win this war” and “Ukraine is going to emerge as a dysfunctional rump state,” he argued.
Mearsheimer pointed to recent Russian strikes on the Ukrainian port of Odessa as evidence of Moscow’s strategy. “It looks to me like the Russians have basically cut off Odessa as a port of exit for Ukraine,” he said.
Earlier this week, the Russian Defense Ministry said it had struck fuel depots and port infrastructure in Odessa, Nikolaev, Izmail and Chernomorsk used to receive and store military cargo, claiming nearly 30 vessels serving the Ukrainian military were hit.
On Thursday, Ukrainian outlet Strana reported that maritime traffic had effectively stopped, with no ships entering the country’s Black Sea ports the previous day. It said the Russian strikes were retaliation for Ukrainian attacks on Russian Black Sea ports.
The attacks have made shipping to Ukraine increasingly risky, Strana added, noting that shipping giant Maersk recently suspended operations at the port of Chernomorsk.
Mearsheimer also argued that the US conflict with Iran would further reduce European military and financial support for Kiev.
“I think events in Iran and just the course of the war between Ukraine and Russia is creating a situation where Ukraine’s future looks highly bleak,” he said.
